Thaksin-Paetongtarn cases set to reshape political landscape

Two of the cases involving Thaksin Shinawatra, the former prime minister, are in the hands of the Criminal Court and the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Political Office Holders. Meanwhile, a third case involving Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the suspended prime minister and Minister of Culture, is before the Constitutional Court.

Political figures, both inside and outside the game, are anxiously awaiting the verdicts, as they will determine the next steps and strategic deals in Thai politics.

Thaksin’s lese majeste charge

The first case, scheduled for August 22, 2025, concerns alleged violations under the Criminal Code, Section 112, and the Computer Crime Act, following Thaksin’s 2015 interview with South Korean media. The content of the interview was deemed to have insulted the monarchy.

The Attorney General pressed charges against Thaksin in June 2024, and the Criminal Court has since ordered that the proceedings be held behind closed doors. The court also imposed restrictions on Thaksin’s bail, prohibiting him from leaving the country without permission.

On July 16, 2025, Thaksin testified in court, with his legal team stating that no additional witnesses would be called. The court is set to deliver its verdict on August 22, 2025, at 10.00am.

Thaksin will be eagerly awaiting the outcome, as a conviction could put him at significant legal risk. While he could appeal any verdict, the chance of a royal pardon seems unlikely, as a proposed amnesty bill was rejected by parliament.

If the court rules that Thaksin’s remarks did not violate Section 112, he will be cleared of charges, but prosecutors could still appeal the decision. On the other hand, if the court rules against him, Thaksin will face sentencing, though he may have the option to seek bail and fight the case in the appellate court.

Paetongtarn’s political future at stake

The second case is scheduled for August 29, 2025, with the Constitutional Court set to deliver its ruling on a voice recording between Paetongtarn and Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen.

A group of 36 senators filed a petition alleging that Paetongtarn acted dishonestly and violated the code of ethics in her capacity as prime minister.

Paetongtarn has requested an extension to submit her defence, with the deadline for submitting her statement set for August 4. On August 21, the Constitutional Court will hear testimony from two key witnesses: Paetongtarn herself and the Secretary-General of the National Security Council.

If Paetongtarn is cleared of wrongdoing, she will regain full authority as prime minister, which could bolster her political position. However, if the court decides she violated ethical standards, the process to elect a new prime minister will immediately begin.

Among the candidates to be considered are Chaikasem Nitisiri of the Pheu Thai Party, Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha, and Pirapan Salirathavibhaga of the United Thai Nation Party, Anutin Charnvirakul of Bhumjaithai Party, and Jurin Laksanawisit of the Democrat Party.

Fake illness and the risk of Thaksin returning to prison

The third case, scheduled for September 9, 2025, concerns allegations of fake illness and the medical treatment Thaksin received at Police General Hospital while in detention.

The court has scrutinised the processes involved in his transfer to the hospital, examining the documentation provided by the prison officials and medical staff, including progress notes and nurse reports.

The court will focus on whether Thaksin’s treatment at the hospital followed legal protocols and whether his condition warranted such care. There are three possible outcomes for the case:

• If Thaksin's illness is confirmed as genuine and the procedures were followed correctly, he will be cleared of wrongdoing.
   
• If Thaksin’s illness is genuine but the procedures for his treatment were flawed, the officials involved could face charges, but Thaksin would not return to prison.
   
• If Thaksin's illness is deemed fake and the medical procedures were improper, he could face a new sentence, and the case could return to court for a potential prison sentence.

The fake illness controversy is a weak point for Thaksin, with significant opposition from conservative factions who oppose his attempts to escape justice under the guise of illness.

Conclusion

These three cases will be pivotal in determining the future of the Shinawatra family’s political legacy and the course of Thai politics. 

While the conservative factions may continue to back the current political deal, the handling of these legal cases could shift the balance of power, potentially opening the door for new leadership to emerge.