Is August the turning point for the fate of 'Shinawatra father and daughter'?

August marks a pivotal moment in Thai politics, as a variety of hot cases remain unresolved in the investigation process.

One such case involves the audio clip of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, which reached its deadline on August 4.

This was the date the Constitutional Court allowed the Prime Minister to submit a defence in response to allegations stemming from a conversation with Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen, following the second extension.

According to the timeline, once the Prime Minister submits her explanation, the Constitutional Court will send the defence documents to the 36 senators who filed the petition. These senators will have 15 days to submit their rebuttal. 

Following this, the Constitutional Court will send the rebuttal back to Paetongtarn, who still has the right to submit further responses. Afterwards, the Court will need to wait for 15 days before issuing its ruling.

The entire process is expected to "determine" the Prime Minister's fate by September.

Meanwhile, the Prime Minister’s legal team remains hopeful that the Constitutional Court’s ruling will be in their favour. They argue that the Prime Minister acted with good intentions in seeking to resolve conflicts through peaceful means, and that in her capacity as leader of the government, she consulted closely with the military, relevant agencies, and foreign affairs. 

They contend that the individual Paetongtarn contacted was not a government representative but rather someone she reached out to in hopes of peacefully ending the conflict.

However, in the realm of politics, anything can happen. As a result, the political landscape remains uncertain. Paetongtarn’s future is now on a precarious path, with the current situation resembling a "crossroads" for her political journey.

This scenario aligns with comments made by former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra during an interview on July 9, 2025, for "55 Years of The Nation – Breaking Thailand's deadlock." Thaksin outlined three political scenarios he believes will prevent the country from reaching a deadlock.

The First Scenario: If the ruling is "positive," Paetongtarn will retain her position as Prime Minister. The government, with 260 votes in Parliament, will continue to manage the country despite facing numerous major challenges, including economic issues both domestically and internationally.

The Second Scenario: If the ruling is "negative," the court decides that Paetongtarn must step down as Prime Minister, triggering a significant political shift. This would lead to a new process for selecting a new Prime Minister.

Currently, the list of potential candidates includes Chaikasem Nitisiri from the Pheu Thai Party, Anutin Charnvirakul from the Bhumjaithai Party, Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha and Pirapan Salirathavibhaga from the United Thai Nation Party, and Jurin Laksanawisit from the Democrat Party.

The Third Scenario: The dissolution of Parliament. Under this scenario, the government would continue in a caretaker capacity for at least 60 days, as stipulated by law. This was previously discussed when the government consulted with relevant agencies regarding the powers of a caretaker Prime Minister to dissolve the Parliament, reaffirming that dissolution remains a viable option.

Beyond these scenarios, attention must be paid to the "big boss" behind the scenes, who seems unlikely to relinquish power easily. Should the ruling be negative, it will be crucial to see which "hidden card" is played next.

Meanwhile, the strategic planning by Pheu Thai’s key advisors, especially Dr Prommin Lertsuridej, the Secretary-General of the Prime Minister, is worth noting. Dr Prommin recently refuted rumours that the Prime Minister might resign before the court's ruling, stating that these claims were "not true."

This reinforces the notion that the option for the Prime Minister to "resign preemptively," similar to the case of "Pichit Chuenban," the former Minister to the Prime Minister's Office, is not necessarily the final solution. 

In Pichit's case, the Constitutional Court dismissed the petition because "there was no minister named Pichit anymore." However, in the case of the Prime Minister, it may not be the final answer.

It’s important to note that the case of "Prime Minister Paetongtarn" differs from Pichit's, as there is still an ongoing investigation by the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) related to the audio recording involving "Uncle Hun Sen," which is still under review.

Even if the Prime Minister were to resign preemptively, this would not mean escaping the "Uncle Hun Sen audio" case, as the NACC’s investigation is ongoing and has not been halted.

Moreover, with the government losing confidence due to the ongoing Thai-Cambodian border issues, which show no signs of resolution, the situation may only worsen for the government. Having only Phumtham Wechayachai as the acting Prime Minister would create a power vacuum and further destabilise the government.

Another key development to watch is the criminal case under Section 112 of the Penal Code (Lese majeste law), where Thaksin Shinawatra is the defendant. The case stems from an interview he gave to foreign media in South Korea in 2015, allegedly defaming the monarchy. The court is set to issue a ruling on August 22.

Additionally, Thaksin is also facing legal battles related to his sentence for a health-related transfer from prison to the Police General Hospital’s 14th floor. The Supreme Court will conduct the final witness hearings on July 30, with a verdict expected between mid and late August.

With external pressures mounting and internal conflicts closing in, including the "Shinawatra father-and-daughter" duo, all eyes are on August as the critical juncture that will determine the government's future.