Shinawatra clan and Pheu Thai emerge true losers in Cambodia conflict

Although tensions along the Thai-Cambodian border have somewhat eased following the ceasefire agreement secured after midnight on July 29, 2025—thanks to talks between Acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai and his Cambodian counterpart Hun Manet—the situation is far from resolved.

What remains to be seen is how Hun Sen, President of the Cambodian Senate and long-time political strategist, will respond to the setback. His carefully laid plans appear to have fallen short, with strategic territory eluding Cambodian control. 

Key border positions, once occupied or infiltrated, have now been vacated following resistance from Thai forces.

Cambodian troops have suffered notable defeats across several fronts, particularly in the Phu Makua area, where they had previously succeeded in setting up military outposts and transport cable systems. These advances, in clear violation of the 2000 Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), had been tolerated by Thailand for years—but are now being pushed back.

From a military standpoint, the Thai armed forces are far from disadvantaged. But on the political front, the government of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra appears to be losing ground, both strategically and perceptually.

Since tensions began to escalate in late 2024, the Pheu Thai-led government has shown little strategic foresight. 

In stark contrast, Hun Sen has demonstrated tactical dexterity, beginning with symbolic provocations such as the singing of Cambodia’s national anthem at Ta Muen Thom temple, the torching of Sala Trimuk pavilion, the digging of defensive trenches, and culminating in the release of a controversial leaked audio clip featuring Paetongtarn herself. The result: a rapid escalation of conflict.

Paetongtarn and her father, Thaksin Shinawatra, miscalculated badly—largely due to their unwavering trust in Hun Sen. 

For over three decades, the Shinawatra and Hun families have maintained close personal and political ties. Thaksin has long received support from Hun Sen during periods of political exile and pressure. The familial bonds run deep: a daughter of Yaowapa Wongsawat, Thaksin’s sister, is married to the son of Seang Nam, a prominent Cambodian politician close to Hun Sen. Business links between the Shinawatra network and Cambodia have also flourished over the years.

These familial and economic interconnections appear to have fostered a level of trust that blinded Thaksin and Paetongtarn to Hun Sen’s ambitions. Thaksin, wary of the Thai military and conservative establishment, underestimated the threat from his supposed ally.

In the arena of international political manoeuvring, Thaksin and Paetongtarn have been decisively outplayed by Hun Sen.

Domestically, the Pheu Thai Party is now facing a severe credibility crisis. Once a political powerhouse in the northeast, the “Shinawatra brand” is seeing a sharp backlash. Thaksin is under scrutiny for his closeness to Hun Sen, while Paetongtarn’s leadership is increasingly being questioned. Her perceived lack of authorityand control has led to a significant erosion of public trust.

Historically, Pheu Thai’s strength lay in its communication strategy. Backed by an agile media team, the party could read public sentiment with precision and craft narratives that bolstered the image of Shinawatra prime ministers. This time, however, the party has faltered.

In the Thai-Cambodian conflict, Pheu Thai’s communication machinery failed to reassure the public or clarify the government’s actions. Most of its decisions have been met with scepticism, perceived as reactive rather than strategic—especially when compared to the more aggressive and clear-cut actions of the Cambodian side.

This breakdown in public messaging is damaging, especially for a party leading the coalition government. Its once-strong support base in the northeast is likely to dwindle, with trust eroding rapidly.

The fallout from Thaksin and Pheu Thai’s defeat in this geopolitical clash with Hun Sen will likely have long-term consequences. As the next general election looms, the risk of losing control of the political board is now higher than ever.