NESDC outlines 10 global risks threatening Thailand’s path to high-income status
The NESDC warns of global and domestic threats — from extreme weather to household debt — that could hinder Thailand’s ambition to become a high-income nation.
At a recent seminar on “Challenges to the Success of the National Strategy in Reforming Thailand’s Economy and Society,” Vitphiphon Tivatansakul, Policy and Planning Adviser at the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC), addressed the opportunities and obstacles Thailand faces in its bid to become a high-income economy, highlighting both global risks and domestic threats that act as major constraints.
Citing the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2024, Vitphiphon identified five severe risks projected to impact Thailand in the future:
Short-term risks (within two years)
- Extreme weather — an environmental threat.
- AI-generated misinformation and disinformation — a technological risk.
- Societal polarisation — a severe social risk.
Long-term risks (within 10 years)
- Environmental risks, including extreme weather, critical changes to Earth systems, and biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse.
- Technological and social risks — likely to become increasingly intertwined and complex over time.
Direct threats to the economy
Vitphiphon also warned of domestic threats and structural constraints that could directly impact Thailand’s economic development:
- Economic downturn — a growing risk for the future.
- Pollution — increasingly severe environmental degradation.
- Labour shortages — particularly the challenge of employing fresh graduates who lack experience and struggle to adapt.
- Household debt — still alarmingly high, driven largely by personal loans and property purchases. Non-performing loans (NPLs) stand at 174 billion baht, while special mention loans (SMLs), overdue by 30–90 days, total 570 billion baht. A culture of luxury spending and over-borrowing exacerbates the problem.
- Wealth and income inequality — persisting disparities, including unequal access to resources and services.
Other limitations include Thailand’s heavy dependence on exports and tourism, making it vulnerable to external shocks; shortages of skilled labour; climate change and environmental challenges; and issues of public sector efficiency and governance.
“All of these are challenges Thailand must urgently address in order to move towards its goal of becoming a high-income country. Planning and proactive solutions are essential,” Vitphiphon stressed.
