NESDC predicts 18% US tariff on Thai goods, hopes revised terms can lead to 'win-win' deal

The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) has forecasted that the United States may impose an 18% tariff on Thai goods, based on comparison with previous rates negotiated with China, the UK, and Vietnam. The estimate follows earlier announcements where some countries were hit with tariffs as high as 50%.

Danucha Pichayanan, NESDC Secretary-General, explained that if the final rate is below 18%, it would be a more favourable outcome for Thailand. He noted that most affected imports from the US, such as soybeans, corn, and red meat, are used primarily for processing and re-export, since Thailand lacks certain raw materials.

Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira recently provided an update on the negotiations with the United States Trade Representative (USTR) team. While a final agreement has not yet been reached, he said Thailand would intensify its efforts and refine its proposals to emphasise mutual benefits for both Thai and American businesses, aiming for a “win-win” agreement.

The Thai side is preparing to submit the revised conditions before the July 9 deadline. Whether the US will extend the negotiation window remains uncertain, but Thai officials are determined to push through.

Even if the final tariff on Thai products ends up slightly higher — for example, around 20%, as in Vietnam’s case — it will not be the sole factor in determining the overall economic impact. The effects must be considered in the context of Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand’s collective tariff rates, with several assumptions still needing further review.

If, however, the US maintains the previously announced 36% tariff on Thailand, and applies similar rates to other countries, NESDC projects that Thailand’s GDP could still grow by 2.3%. Recently, Vietnam’s proposed tariff was reduced from 46% to 20%, while results for Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand remain pending.

Due to these uncertainties, a full GDP projection is being recalculated, Danucha said.

Despite these trade tensions, Thailand’s overall economy performed well in the first five months of 2025. Private investment continues to grow, and foreign tourist arrivals remain steady, even though arrivals from China are still below expectations. Increased tourist spending compared to the previous year remains a key driver of economic momentum.

The impact of the US tariff negotiations on exports will be reassessed once final decisions are announced, he said.