Chinese tourism unlikely to rebound; TAT targets 2026 to match 2024

The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) is stepping up efforts to stimulate the market, aiming for 2026 visitor numbers to reach the same level as 2024.

The slowdown in Chinese arrivals has dragged down Thailand’s overall tourism figures for nearly six months. 

Beyond safety concerns, factors include issues surrounding grey Chinese capital and negative perceptions among Thais toward Chinese visitors, fuelled by social media discourse. These have left many Chinese feeling less welcome than before.

China’s government is also promoting domestic travel more proactively in response to its post-Covid economic slowdown, while heightened competition from destinations such as Japan and Vietnam has further dented Thailand’s appeal. 

As a result, Chinese tour groups have increasingly opted for these destinations, with most travellers to Thailand now arriving in small groups or as independent travellers (FITs). The recent Thai–Cambodian conflict has also weakened sentiment.

Given these challenges, the prospect of Chinese arrivals returning to the pre-Covid peak of 11 million in the near future appears slim. This year, the TAT estimates a maximum of 5 million Chinese visitors.

For 2026, it aims for around 6.9 million, supported by tourism stimulus funding under the government’s economic stimulus package in the latter half of this year to create momentum.

TAT intensifies Chinese tourism drive

TAT governor Thapanee Kiatphaibool said the agency, in partnership with the Association of Thai Travel Agents (ATTA), has led more than 50 Thai operators to participate in the TAT & ATTA Road Show 2025, covering three high-potential Chinese cities — Chongqing, Lanzhou and Hangzhou.

The roadshow includes business-matching sessions with over 300 Chinese companies to expand the market, strengthen partnerships and promote concrete bilateral travel opportunities. 

Efforts also extend to government-to-government (G2G) engagement and people-to-people (P2P) understanding through two-way tourism and cultural exchanges.

Phatthanong Na Chiang Mai, TAT deputy governor for Asia and South Pacific marketing, said the China market strategy will focus on three main approaches:

• Charter flights — The Chinese market has already expressed interest in over 1,000 flights. TAT will prioritise routes connecting secondary Chinese cities with secondary Thai destinations, such as Chiang Rai or U-Tapao, and ensure packages generate appropriate spending levels, avoiding zero-dollar tours.
• Scheduled commercial flights — Many Thai airlines still face low load factors on China routes. TAT will support increasing capacity, boosting frequencies or launching new routes.
• High-value niche markets — Targeting MICE, incentives, summer camps and caravans, with conditions such as groups of at least 30 people and minimum stays of four nights to encourage greater spending.

Safety is key; Nihao Month launched

Chuwit Sirivejkul, TAT regional director for East Asia marketing, said China now seeks genuine reassurances from Thailand, rather than blanket claims of complete safety. 

“Chinese travellers have a deep affection for Thailand, but they want honesty. They already know no destination is 100% safe,” he said, adding that government messaging should avoid contradictions and that negative news should be minimised.

Strengthening G2G ties and personal-level connections remains crucial, as Chinese audiences see almost every piece of Thai news online.

In the latter half of this year, ahead of the 50th anniversary of Thailand–China diplomatic relations in 2025, multiple initiatives will be rolled out. These include the ‘Nihao Month’ campaign in October and cooperation with Chinese cities to cross-promote tourism via their official channels, capitalising on the high trust Chinese citizens place in state media.

Currently, Chinese visitors to Thailand are largely affluent, with average spending per trip rising to about 52,000 baht, up from 47,000–48,000 baht. TAT plans to boost user-generated content from everyday travellers, as Chinese consumers can easily spot paid influencer endorsements.

CAAT seeks one-year slot flexibility from China

The downturn in Chinese tourism is also affecting airlines. Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand (CAAT) director Air Chief Marshal Manat Chavanaprayoon said the market remains subdued due to safety concerns and changes in Chinese travel behaviour, with a greater focus on domestic tourism.

CAAT is negotiating with Chinese authorities for a one-year relaxation of slot usage rules, allowing Thai airlines to temporarily redeploy aircraft to other key markets to offset the slowdown. 

Despite fewer Chinese tourists, arrivals from regions such as the Middle East and ASEAN have increased.

CAAT hopes Chinese arrivals will pick up during the high season at the end of the year and is focusing on attracting more high-spending travellers from China.