Chinese Tourist Numbers Plummet, Malaysia Overtakes Thailand in ASEAN Race

 

Thailand's crucial tourism industry is facing a significant shake-up, largely due to a dramatic drop in Chinese visitor numbers. 

 

Once the cornerstone of the market, Chinese tourist arrivals have fallen by over 34% compared to pre-pandemic levels in 2019.

 

Recent figures from 1st January to 5th July 2025 reveal that Thailand welcomed 16.8 million international tourists, a 5% decrease from the same period last year. 

 

The Chinese market, traditionally a huge revenue generator, is proving to be a major weakness for Thai tourism.

 

While long-haul markets like India, Japan, and the United States have shown some growth, with these visitors spending more (averaging 81,482 baht per trip), their numbers are simply too small to compensate for the significant contraction from China. 

 

In 2019, China accounted for 11.1 million tourists, nearly 28% of total arrivals. This year, however, that figure is projected to be less than 5 million, with only 2.32 million recorded in the first five months.

 

This downturn has directly impacted Thailand's tourism revenue. Meanwhile, Malaysia, a key regional competitor, has surpassed Thailand to become the top destination for Chinese tourists in Southeast Asia. 
 

 

This success is attributed to a proactive strategy that includes visa exemptions for Chinese citizens until the end of 2026 and expanded direct flight capacities from major Chinese cities.

 

In the first quarter of 2025, Malaysia welcomed an impressive 1.12 million Chinese tourists, marking a 22% increase year-on-year. 

 

In stark contrast, during the same period, Thailand received 1.3 million Chinese visitors, but this represented a sharp 32.71% year-on-year decrease. This shift means Thailand's market leadership has changed hands in less than five years.

 

A primary reason for the drop in Chinese tourist arrivals in Thailand is a "feeling of insecurity". High-profile criminal incidents, such as a mall shooting in central Bangkok and the kidnapping of Chinese tourists, have generated widespread alarm on Chinese social media. 

 

Malaysia, conversely, has visibly succeeded in fostering a "sense of confidence and convenience" for Chinese visitors.

 

This includes Mandarin-speaking hotel staff, Chinese-language signage and tourist information, and a perception of safer, more accessible, and friendlier tourist cities.
 

 

Long-Haul Markets Insufficient, Regional Competition Rises

Although long-haul markets from the UK, US, and Australia continue to grow, they represent only 28% of overall tourist numbers. 

 

They cannot replace the high-spending Chinese market, which previously generated an average of 42,428 baht per trip with an average stay of 7.36 days. 

 

This contrasts with Malaysian tourists, who typically spend 21,450 baht and stay for 4.17 days.

 

Furthermore, neighbouring Vietnam is emerging as another significant competitor, benefiting from the strong Thai Baht compared to the weaker Vietnamese Dong. 

 

This makes Vietnam a more affordable and accessible alternative for Chinese tourists.

 

The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) has acknowledged that without a swift recovery of confidence, Thailand may miss its projected targets for tourist numbers and revenue. 

 

While new markets are welcome, the TAT stresses the urgent need to revitalise the Chinese market as quickly as possible.

 

This shift represents more than just statistics; it signifies a genuine "turning point" in ASEAN's tourism dynamics. In an increasingly competitive global tourism landscape, the nation that adapts faster gains a distinct advantage. 

 

If Thailand does not adjust its strategy now, it risks being increasingly outpaced in a field where it once held the leading position.