Security source urges caution over Thai-Cambodian ceasefire progress

A former top national security official, who remains influential in Thailand’s defence and strategic affairs, has warned against prematurely declaring success following the first round of ceasefire talks between Thai and Cambodian leaders in Malaysia.

The source outlined five key concerns following the negotiations:

Driven by US trade pressure:

The agreement appears to have been primarily prompted by growing concern over potential repercussions on trade negotiations with the United States. Washington had reportedly raised the border conflict as a point of pressure.

Unconditional ceasefire leaves troops in place:

The ceasefire was agreed upon without preconditions, meaning both Thai and Cambodian forces remain stationed in their current forward positions. This raises the risk of renewed clashes if today's military-level talks or the upcoming Joint Boundary Commission (JBC) meeting on August 4 fail to reach a durable resolution. (It was later revealed that no actual ceasefire took place after midnight on July 28.)

Cambodian advance before ceasefire deadline:

Between late afternoon and midnight on the day of the agreement, Cambodian forces launched intensified operations in an apparent effort to reclaim as much territory as possible. Thai troops, meanwhile, were under pressure to maintain defensive positions.

Doubt over US trade incentives:

If the ceasefire was largely motivated by fears of US retaliation on trade, and the US ultimately fails to deliver expected tariff reductions, questions may arise as to whether Thailand’s agreement to the ceasefire was ultimately violated.

Risk of blame and escalation:

As a result, Cambodia may exploit the situation by provoking new incidents and accusing Thailand of violating the ceasefire—potentially reigniting hostilities.

Seven-point strategy proposed for managing Cambodian conflict in short and long term

A set of strategic recommendations has been proposed by a high-level national security source to guide Thailand’s approach in managing the ongoing border tensions with Cambodia. The proposals cover both immediate military actions and long-term national security measures.

1. Heightened vigilance before midnight deadline

From now until midnight, Thai forces must exercise maximum caution to defend existing positions and prevent further Cambodian offensives. Given the recent escalations, there is concern that Cambodian troops may intensify attacks in a final push to gain ground before any ceasefire takes full effect.

( It has been proven to be true as claimed )

2. Unified stance required ahead of military and JBC meetings

Military leaders and government officials must urgently meet to establish a unified position in preparation for the upcoming military talks tomorrow and the Joint Boundary Commission (JBC) meeting on August 4.

Military commanders reportedly began internal meetings in the evening (July 28).

3. Negotiations must protect sovereignty

Any diplomatic talks must not compromise Thailand’s sovereignty or territorial integrity. Furthermore, agreements of this nature must receive parliamentary approval to prevent legal or public backlash.

4. Close monitoring of Cambodian troop movements

Thailand must closely monitor for any reinforcement or repositioning of Cambodian forces.

5. Ceasefire does not eliminate risk of renewed conflict

The current ceasefire has not removed the underlying risks. It remains critical to strengthen Thai forces, boost troop morale, and ensure readiness.

Civilian protection—both in terms of life and property—must remain a top priority. The imposition of martial law in the current zones should continue until further notice.

6. Leadership transitions in September–October pose a risk

Routine retirements and transfers of military personnel scheduled for September and October could create vulnerabilities. Cambodia may exploit this transitional period to provoke new incidents or gain territory.

7. Domestic political vacuum may invite external threat

From early August, a number of politically sensitive court rulings are expected. Should verdicts prove unfavourable to major political factions, Thailand could enter a period of political uncertainty.

In such a scenario, it will fall to permanent officials in the national security sector to maintain stability. A political vacuum could embolden Cambodia to launch military action in disputed zones.