NESDC to revise 2025 GDP forecast after US confirms 19% tariff on Thai exports
NESDC may raise Thailand’s 2025 GDP forecast from the current 1.3–2.3% range, with the midpoint likely to reach 2%, backed by 15% export growth in H1 and clarity on US tariffs.
- Thailand's National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) will revise its 2025 GDP forecast following the United States' confirmation of a 19% tariff on Thai exports.
- The 19% tariff rate is slightly higher than the NESDC's expectation but is considered in line with rates for regional competitors, which eases some economic pressure.
- The upcoming revision may adjust the forecast's midpoint closer to 2% within the existing 1.3–2.3% growth range, rather than changing the range itself.
- Despite the tariff, Thai exports in the first half of the year were strong, exceeding projections as manufacturers accelerated shipments to the US ahead of the hike.
The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) will announce on August 18, Thailand’s second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures and provide an outlook for the economy in 2025. The briefing will be delivered by NESDC Secretary-General Danucha Pichayanan.
Thailand’s economy is expected to continue expanding in the second quarter, following 3.1% growth in the first quarter. The momentum is supported by strong exports, driven by manufacturers accelerating shipments to the United States ahead of Washington’s tariff hikes. In the first half of the year, Thai exports reached US$166.85 billion, an increase of 15%.
At its previous briefing, the NESDC revised down its 2025 GDP growth forecast from 2.3–3.3% (with a midpoint of 2.8%) to 1.3–2.3% (midpoint 1.8%), reflecting uncertainty over US trade measures.
For the upcoming revision, the agency may not adjust the forecast range but could narrow its assumptions, bringing the midpoint closer to 2%.
The adjustment aligns with similar downward revisions by other economic agencies, including the Bank of Thailand and the Fiscal Policy Office.
Meanwhile, clarity has emerged on the US reciprocal tariff rate for Thai exports, which has been set at 19%. Although slightly higher than the NESDC’s expectation of 18%, the rate is broadly in line with those imposed on regional competitors, easing some pressure on the Thai economy.
At the same time, export figures for the first half of the year have exceeded earlier projections by economic agencies.
Previously, economic agencies monitoring Thailand’s performance and producing forecasts have gradually revised up their GDP projections for 2025 as follows:
- Bank of Thailand (BOT): The central bank recently raised its GDP forecast to 2.3%, up from its April projection of around 2%. It also warned that if trade negotiations with the United States fail, growth could be limited to just 1.3%.
- Fiscal Policy Office (FPO): In July, the FPO revised its GDP forecast from 2.1% to 2.2%, citing stronger-than-expected industrial recovery, better export performance, private consumption, and continued momentum from both public and private investment supporting the economy in the second half of the year.
- International Monetary Fund (IMF): The IMF currently projects Thailand’s economy to expand by around 1.8% this year. However, it noted that in its next review, there is a likelihood of an upward revision, reflecting stronger export growth.
However, in managing the economy this year, the NESDC has emphasised six key priorities for steering Thailand’s economy in 2025:
- Accelerating budget disbursement to ensure government spending quickly enters the economic system and sustains fiscal momentum.
- Preparing for heightened trade protectionism from major trading partners.
- Safeguarding domestic industries from dumping practices and unfair trade policies.
- Supporting SMEs struggling with access to liquidity as credit quality continues to weaken.
- Strengthening agricultural production and farmer incomes.
- Restoring tourist confidence to drive continued growth in the tourism sector.
