High-spending tourists generate 1.74 tn baht for Thai economy: Krungthai COMPASS

The centre’s senior analyst, Supree Srisamran, stated that the past one to two years have been challenging for Thailand's tourism sector, as it has faced structural changes due to a significant reduction in Chinese tourists, who previously formed the core of tourism revenue. 

He believes that the number of Chinese tourists may recover to around 50-65% of pre-COVID levels.

However, Thailand has been bolstered by the growth of mass tourist groups from countries such as Malaysia and India, as well as high-spending tourists from Europe, Russia, and Israel, helping sustain revenue from international visitors, which is estimated to range from 1.74 to 1.95 trillion baht.

Supree pointed out that this shift is likely to impact operators within the tourism supply chain.

“A structural shift in the national tourism market is a major challenge that requires cooperation from all sectors. This includes supportive government policies for tourism, as well as assistance for operators in the tourism supply chain,” he said.

“Meanwhile, the private sector needs to adapt to the evolving tourism trends, aligning with the wider ecosystem to encourage Thailand’s return to prominence among international tourists, thereby diversifying the visitor base and reducing dependency on any single group.” 

Supree added that these efforts will become a powerful engine to drive the economy, playing a significant role in income creation and distribution.

Kanit Umsakul, an analyst at Krungthai COMPASS, cited three reasons why Chinese tourists have not returned to Thailand in the past one to two years:

• The image of Thailand's safety. Incidents impacting Thailand’s safety have shown a slower recovery compared to previous years, with Chinese tourists possibly taking up to one year to return to normal levels.
   
• Changing behaviours and preferences among Chinese tourists. The number of Chinese free independent travellers (FITs), who often seek new travel experiences, has significantly increased. Thailand’s attractions may be less novel compared to competitor destinations such as Japan, Vietnam, South Korea, Singapore, and Malaysia, which have developed new destinations.
   
• The impact of China’s economic slowdown, which has reduced the purchasing power of Chinese consumers. As a result, some Chinese tourists are opting for domestic travel over international tourism due to the higher costs of travelling abroad.

Thana Tunlayakitjawat, an analyst at Krungthai COMPASS, added that the main factor hindering Thailand’s tourism recovery is the continued absence of Chinese tourists, along with increased competition from neighbouring countries that are adopting more proactive marketing strategies.

Although other tourist markets, such as those from Malaysia, India, Russia, and Europe, are showing growth, it is not enough to offset the loss of Chinese tourists, further exacerbating the uneven distribution of tourism revenue, he noted.

Thana pointed out that the influx of high-spending tourists is beneficial for four- to five-star hotel businesses, but other sectors continue to face challenges due to the sharp decline in Chinese tourist numbers. 

This includes lower-star hotels, street food restaurants, condominium businesses, and related services such as car rentals, souvenir shops, and tour operators. The effects may also extend to industries like construction and hotel furnishings.

“The government remains a crucial force in supporting Thailand’s tourism sector during this challenging period. Through various intensified and comprehensive measures, including restoring confidence and attracting international visitors, as well as supporting affected operators,” Thana said.

“Moreover, Krungthai COMPASS believes that funding foreign film or series productions in Thailand could serve as a key soft power strategy and create new opportunities for the Thai tourism sector.”

The centre estimates that the break-even point for promoting Thailand by co-funding a foreign TV series episode would be the addition of 500 to 1,000 international tourists.