Thailand may miss 2025 tourist target as experts urge strategic rethink, focus on Chinese market

Thailand may miss its 2025 international tourism target of 35.5 million visitors, with foreign analysts warning the country to reassess its tourism strategy and prioritise retaining key source markets, particularly Chinese travellers.

Long regarded as Southeast Asia’s most visited destination, Thailand nearly hit 40 million arrivals in 2019. However, six years later, it remains far from that golden era. According to a report by Channel News Asia, Malaysia and Japan have now overtaken Thailand in visitor numbers.

In 2024, Malaysia welcomed 38 million foreign tourists, Japan 36.9 million, while Thailand recorded 35.5 million. Amid a global slowdown in international travel, Thailand has shifted its strategy towards “quality over quantity”, targeting high-spending travellers.

The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) has increasingly focused on Europe, the US, and the Middle East to fill the gap left by Chinese tourists, whose numbers have dwindled since the COVID-19 pandemic.

In June, the TAT reported that between 1 January and 9 June, tourist arrivals from several countries—Germany, Italy, the Gulf states, the UK, and Australia—rose year-on-year. TAT Governor Thapanee Kiatphaibool said these tourists tend to have strong purchasing power.

To support this strategy, Thailand has pushed for new and long-haul flights from these key markets while promoting sports tourism, cultural festivals, and eco-tourism. However, geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainty have affected international travel recovery.

Experts warn that Thailand risks “chasing shadows” instead of developing a truly sustainable tourism industry.

“2025 is a true turning point for post-pandemic recovery,” said Gary Bowerman, a consumer trends and tourism policy analyst. “Thailand needs to reassess what it’s doing.”

Despite targeting 35.5 million visitors, equivalent to last year’s total, the first half of 2025 still trails 2024 figures by 3%. Achieving the revised goal may depend heavily on long-haul travellers from Europe.

Hannah Pearson, co-founder of Pear Anderson tourism consultancy, commented that the target remains out of reach due to global economic pressures, consumer confidence, and accessibility, especially after recent flight disruptions linked to Middle East conflicts.

 “The miracle of 40 million tourists is no longer a necessary goal,” Bowerman added. “Thailand needs to step back and reassess how to make the most of what it already has.”

China’s tourists must be retained

In 2019, Thailand welcomed 11.1 million Chinese tourists. However, in the first five months of this year, fewer than 2 million Chinese visitors have arrived — a drop of nearly one-third from 2024. Despite this decline, experts insist that Thailand cannot afford to neglect the Chinese market.

According to analysts, one of the main reasons for the sharp fall in both Chinese tourist numbers and revenue is that Thailand is no longer seen as a safe destination. The kidnapping of Chinese actor Wang Xing — lured to a scam compound in Myanmar while transiting through Thailand in January — has further heightened safety concerns.

The 2023 Siam Paragon mall shooting, in which a Chinese tourist was killed, also contributed to the decline in Chinese arrivals due to growing fears about public safety.

Pearson added that the Thai-Cambodian border tensions, domestic political protests, and the recent discovery of a suspected explosive device in two southern tourist provinces have all damaged Thailand’s image as a secure destination.

Pipat Luengnaruemitchai, Chief Economist at Kiatnakin Phatra Financial Group (KKP), warned that promoting entertainment complexes with legalised casinos could also carry reputational risks if used as a tourism draw.

Meanwhile, Chinese outbound travel behaviour is also changing. Bowerman observed that large group tours and charter flights from second-tier Chinese cities may soon be a thing of the past.

Nevertheless, the Thai government continues efforts to re-attract Chinese travellers. In April, the Association of Thai Travel Agents (ATTA) proposed that the government allocate up to US$10 million to subsidise 1,000 flights over three months from 20 Chinese cities to rekindle travel interest in Thailand.

ATTA is also backing initiatives like the “Thailand Summer Blast – China & Overseas Market Stimulus Plan” and has recently partnered with Baidu, China’s largest search engine, to strengthen Thailand’s digital tourism marketing using AI-generated insights to attract high-quality Chinese tourists.

Additional campaigns include “Sawadee Nihao”, which invites Chinese media representatives and influencers to visit Thailand and promote its tourism appeal.

 “Chinese tourists still love Thailand,” said Bowerman, “but the country hasn’t changed much in the last 10 years. Thailand must show why it’s worth returning to.”

Assoc Prof Krittinee Nuttavuthisit, Assistant Director of Research at Chulalongkorn University’s Sasin School of Management, added that Thailand must innovate to capture the interest of a new generation of Chinese tourists.

Today’s young Chinese travellers are seeking unique, tangible experiences beyond conventional tour packages. Thailand, she suggested, must move beyond its traditional tourism model and focus on offering novel, engaging experiences that highlight local charm and foster stronger community connections.

Tourism “quality” must match the high spending

Pearson remarked that Southeast Asia is a highly competitive region, with Malaysia and Vietnam also aiming to attract the same high-value tourist segment that Thailand is targeting.

Malaysia has extended visa-free entry for Chinese tourists by five years, while Vietnam has expanded its electronic visa programme, added more flights, and in May resumed the Nanning–Hanoi railway service, which had been closed for five years.

However, Bowerman noted that no country has clearly taken the lead in attracting tourists. It may be the case that some travellers are shifting from Thailand to these destinations, but he stressed that Thailand must fight harder to maintain its market share.

“You need to think strategically about how you attract tourists. Look at the front door — how can you open it wider to let more tourists in? But you also need to lock the back door. Southeast Asia hasn’t done that yet. It’s still not doing a good job retaining tourists.”

With the sharp decline in Chinese tourist arrivals, Thailand’s economy has taken a hit. As a result, the Association of Thai Travel Agents (ATTA) has revised its 2025 tourism revenue forecast down to US$60 billion, from a previous estimate of US$69 billion.

Thailand can no longer rely on just one market. While agencies are pushing to diversify into new tourist markets and elevate the industry to a premium level, it is difficult to deny that China remains irreplaceable.

“You have to keep trying to attract the Chinese market. That’s unavoidable for any country in Southeast Asia,” Bowerman insisted.

Though Thailand’s tourism slogan, “quality over quantity,” remains vague in practice, its implication — a shift towards more luxury-focused offerings — is seen as a positive direction.

Ian Di Tullio, Chief Commercial Officer of Minor Hotels, an international hotel group headquartered in Bangkok, cautioned that while there’s no need to abandon this approach, it must be executed better — by ensuring that “quality” actually matches the high spending it demands.