Paetongtarn Shinawatra's political peril: facing two legal battles poised to strike

Analysts suggest that the Pheu Thai Party may push for her resignation to preemptively address the fallout from the controversial audio clip involving a conversation with Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen.

This comes ahead of a ruling by the Constitutional Court on August 29, which will determine whether Paetongtarn breached ethical standards.

Additionally, rumours of a possible dissolution of Parliament by Pheu Thai to counteract opposition pressure and create political leverage have emerged. This move would also serve as a response to external pressures if Chaikasem Nitisiri, the final candidate for Prime Minister, faces resistance. 

Cherdchai Tantisirin, a former red-shirt executive and Pheu Thai MP, hinted that the party might be looking for a way out of the political deadlock, seeking to shift the balance of power through extra-constitutional means.

Despite these speculations, Wisut Chaiyarun, the President of the Pheu Thai MPs and government whip, confirmed that he had met with Paetongtarn, who remains steadfast in her decision not to resign. He expressed confidence that the Constitutional Court would not rule negatively in the case.

However, the certainty around these issues may not be as clear-cut. The petition from Senator Gen Sawat Tassana, who has asked the Constitutional Court to remove Paetongtarn over alleged serious ethical violations, looms large. 

This case follows the example of former Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, which highlights the fragility of Paetongtarn's political standing.

In addition to the ethics case, Paetongtarn faces another legal challenge related to the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC). This pertains to allegations surrounding a controversial budgetary decision in which 35 billion baht originally allocated to five state-owned banks for debt repayment was redirected to a digital wallet project aimed at distributing cash grants. Critics argue this violated Article 144 of the Constitution.

The people's network, which filed the complaint in May, has been actively following up on the case, submitting additional legal documents three times to the NACC. 

Somchai Swangkarn, leader of the people's network, reiterated that citizens have the right to report such issues to the NACC under Article 88 of the Constitution. He stressed that the 20-year statute of limitations for the recovery of misallocated funds provides adequate time for legal scrutiny and accountability.

Somchai also countered claims that the NACC lacked jurisdiction to review the matter, citing the Constitutional Court's previous decision in a related case. He confirmed that the NACC had completed its initial review and was in the process of setting a date for full deliberation.

The outcome of this investigation could be pivotal. If the NACC finds sufficient grounds, it could refer the case to the Constitutional Court, potentially leading to the removal of Paetongtarn and other ministers from office. 

If this happens, it would mark a significant turning point in the country's political landscape, as the constitutional framework demands a resolution within 15 days.

If the timeline holds, it is believed that the Article 144 case, in which Paetongtarn is the defendant, along with former Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin and other ministers, will be decided by mid-September.

Therefore, even though the Pheu Thai Party is trying to find a way to prevent Paetongtarn from facing political execution over the audio clip case, the looming Article 144 case is a second major legal challenge that could ultimately determine her fate.