Coalition becomes lifeline as Paetongtarn faces legal, political siege

It was a close call for Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra. The leaked audio clip of her conversation with Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen nearly brought her government to its knees.

Bhumjaithai, having realised that its bargaining strategy to retain the Interior Ministry had failed, knew the game was up. Once it became clear that the prime minister would not budge, the party seized the moment when the clip surfaced, choosing to withdraw from the coalition.

The blue camp likely assessed that public sentiment was boiling over. What Paetongtarn was heard saying in the clip shocked many, and the backlash was fierce. Bhumjaithai decided to jump ship, believing both the prime minister and her administration were doomed.

However, Paetongtarn’s joint press conference with military top brass—conveying a strong, united message—proved crucial in steadying the government. It helped her regain some footing amid the chaos.

The remaining coalition partners, when faced with a moment of reckoning, ultimately opted to stand by her. They likely calculated that if the game were to shift now, they might end up losing influence—and control—entirely.

The only real uncertainty lies within the United Thai Nation. The party is split into two camps. The faction of 18 MPs loyal to Suchart Chomklin has stayed firm in its support for Paetongtarn.

Meanwhile, the wing led by Pirapan Salirathavibhaga held a closed-door meeting of its own executive committee. No public statement was made, but leaks suggest they are open to staying in the coalition, on the condition that the prime minister is replaced.

The United Thai Nation has long been fragile. The latest controversy has only exposed deeper cracks. Faced with growing discontent from its base, the party has responded hesitantly. Several key figures have even organised protests to provide supporters with an outlet to vent their frustration in multiple provinces.

Though the Prime Minister has managed to hold her coalition together for now, the road ahead is anything but smooth. The leaked audio clip—interpreted by many as evidence of a completed wrongdoing—has triggered a new front in what is shaping up to be a full-blown legal war.

The next phase of the battle is a legal-political one. The blue camp has already moved swiftly, with senators filing a petition to the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC). They accuse Paetongtarn of malfeasance, or of wilfully violating the Constitution or legal statutes, and of committing a grave breach of ethical standards.

They are also requesting that the Constitutional Court rule on whether her premiership should be terminated on an individual basis.

Paetongtarn’s political career—and her unshakeable confidence—have now backed her into a corner. Should a snap election be called today, Pheu Thai might suffer a catastrophic defeat, potentially erasing the party's standing almost entirely.

As she braces for a legal showdown, Paetongtarn also faces growing pressure on the streets. The ‘Uniting the Power of the Land for the Defence of Thai Sovereignty’ is ramping up its mobilisation against her, calling for her resignation. Rumours swirl that the blue camp may be quietly backing the movement from behind the scenes, tightening the noose both inside and outside Parliament.

The weight of this political storm now rests squarely on Paetongtarn’s shoulders. Despite the protection and support she’s received—treated almost like a fragile egg by her allies—it was her own misstep that brought her to the brink of collapse.

Even among coalition partners who have pledged to move forward together, trust remains elusive. Everyone knows the reality: the government’s majority barely exceeds the minimum threshold. Should any party or faction decide to play the withdrawal card, it could all come crashing down.

Adding fuel to the fire is the controversial push for entertainment complexes and casino legalisation—an issue that could either inflame tensions or defuse them. All eyes are on the prime minister and the Pheu Thai Party: will they pour oil on the flames or remove the wood from the fire?

The next no-confidence debate is poised to be the fiercest of Paetongtarn ’s political career. The blue camp—armed with insider knowledge of this ‘father-led’ administration—has been present at key moments involving the influential figure referred to as “V1.”

Will the blue camp go for the political kill? Will it expose murky dealings behind mega-projects, or even implicate Thaksin Shinawatra himself in a narrative of political manipulation? Whispers of such moves are already beginning to circulate.

All this comes as the government struggles to lift the economy out of stagnation, with public confidence at rock bottom. Meanwhile, Thai–Cambodian border tensions continue to escalate, threatening to spill into open conflict.

Paetongtarn, reliant on borrowed political oxygen, is surrounded by threats that could prove fatal. With the blue camp shifting into attack mode, Paetongtarn now finds herself in a position where even standing still is exhausting.

Sakai