Pheu Thai government faces intense pressure amid political turmoil and military concerns

Public outcry has led to calls for Prime Minister's resignation, the dissolution of parliament, and even calls for the military to intervene and seize power.

This situation has paved the way for the opposition to push for the collapse of the Paetongtarn administration, starting with the Bhumjaithai Party, which withdrew from the government coalition, taking 69 seats with it.

Although other coalition parties acknowledge the unacceptable behaviour of the government leader, they emphasise the need for internal discussions to assess the situation, particularly the potential fallout and various political scenarios.

A key issue is understanding the stance of the military—how it views the situation and whether it plans to intervene, especially amidst calls for a coup if the country falls into political vacuum. This is exacerbated by ongoing security concerns regarding the Thailand-Cambodia border, as well as both international and domestic political tensions.

At present, political parties are confident that the military will not interfere in the political dispute and have strongly reaffirmed that a coup is not an option, as it would be detrimental to the country’s overall image. They also believe that the political crisis is not yet at a dead end, with alternative solutions for resolving the issue still possible.

Therefore, the political and security factions seem to agree that Pheu Thai can resolve the situation, and Prime Minister Paetongtarn can continue leading. 

Another scenario is the potential replacement of the Prime Minister, with various political parties manoeuvring to form a new government. This could follow the traditional coalition formula or involve a cross-party government.

Several candidates have been proposed, including Chaikasem Nitisiri from Pheu Thai, Anutin Charnvirakul from Bhumjaithai, Prayut Chan-o-cha and Pirapan Salirathavibhaga from the United Thai Nation Party, and Jurin Laksanawisit from the Democrat Party.

The final scenario involves Prime Minister and Pheu Thai deciding to dissolve parliament and call for new elections. This approach might be considered if Pheu Thai is unable to withstand the pressure or seeks retribution against its coalition partners.

However, this may not be beneficial for Pheu Thai, given the ongoing threats from Cambodia, which has been attempting to destabilise Thailand to gain an advantage in its legal battle over the four disputed areas in the International Court of Justice (ICJ). 

If Thailand ultimately loses the case, even without acknowledging the ICJ’s jurisdiction, the blame will likely fall back on Pheu Thai, further intensifying public dissatisfaction.

At this moment, Pheu Thai is striving to turn the crisis around in a bid to remain the leading party. Although this path is fraught with difficulty and may not last long, Prime Minister Paetongtarn is facing political hardship, particularly following calls for her removal due to the Hun Sen audio leak.

Furthermore, political manoeuvring in parliament to scrutinise and block various proposed laws will add to the pressure.

Despite limited options remaining for Pheu Thai, the party is seizing any opportunity to maintain political leverage. The strategy is to “retreat halfway” and attempt to regain trust, including forging reconciliation with the military to reduce the intensity of public criticism.

By reshuffling the cabinet and strengthening the coalition with the remaining 10 parties, Pheu Thai aims to maintain unity.

The party has also given the military the green light to take a more prominent role in managing border issues and to revitalise foreign relations, particularly after the collapse of ties with the Hun Sen family. 

Pheu Thai is well aware that it no longer has the complete authority to dictate the political game. Nevertheless, the most viable option for the party to stay in power for as long as possible is to manage the situation with minimal damage.

The deep-rooted conservative establishment still holds considerable power to shape the future course of politics, and Pheu Thai cannot ignore this.

If the current pressure becomes too much, a “reset” could lead to the replacement of the Prime Minister. Such a move could, in theory, provide the best route for stabilising Thailand’s political landscape at this moment. Thai politics today must be navigated step by step.