Thaksin's dinner diplomacy: a show of unity or a fight for survival?

Pheu Thai Party hosted a high-profile dinner on Tuesday evening for Members of Parliament from the governing coalition, drawing an impressive turnout from MPs and party heavyweights alike. Nearly all senior figures were present, with absences few and mostly explained by late arrivals rather than no-shows.

Earlier in the day, Pheu Thai MPs had gathered at the Eastin Grand Phayathai Hotel for a party meeting, where they unanimously endorsed Roi Et MP Chalard Khamchuang as the new second Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives. Immediately after the vote, the MPs made their way to the evening’s dinner event.

Among the most closely watched guests was former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who attended the dinner in an official capacity as a guest of the Pheu Thai Party. His appearance was seen as a show of strength and unity among coalition partners. However, the political symbolism of the gathering has prompted some within the coalition to express concern over potential legal challenges related to party interference, which could spark new dissolution cases.

The dinner was held under tight security and in a closed-door format, with attendance limited to coalition leaders and MPs. 

Thaksin delivered a keynote address titled “Uniting Thailand: Protecting Sovereignty and Solving Problems for the People,” laying out a vision for national unity and effective governance.

Leading figures from all coalition parties were in attendance, including:

Pirapan Salirathavibhaga, Deputy Prime Minister and Energy Minister (United Thai Nation Party)

Akanat Promphan, Industry Minister (United Thai Nation Party)

Varawut Silpa-archa, Social Development and Human Security Minister (Chartthaipattana Party)

Pol Col Tawee Sodsong, Justice Minister (Prachachat Party)

Atthakorn Sirilatthayakorn, Agriculture and Cooperatives Minister (Kla Tham Party)

Chaichana Detdecho, Deputy Public Health Minister (Democrat Party)

Tewan Liptapallop, Deputy Education Minister (Chartpattana Party)

Suwat Liptapallop, Chief Advisor to the Chartpattana Party

A notable moment came before the event began, when Thaksin embraced his daughter, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, in a brief but symbolic display of political continuity. Thaksin confirmed to reporters, “If you meet with political parties, of course you talk about politics.”

This week’s coalition dinner marked the first formal attempt to reaffirm ties among governing parties following the withdrawal of the Bhumjaithai Party from the coalition. While the atmosphere appeared upbeat, underlying political instability dominated conversations among party leaders and MPs—especially speculation over whether Prime Minister Paetongtarn would remain in office or be forced to step down pending the Constitutional Court’s ruling.

Thaksin and the Pheu Thai leadership are well aware that, in the run-up to the Constitutional Court’s verdict on Paetongtarn’s controversial conversation with Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen, a wave of rumours and political manoeuvring will flood the political landscape. Speculation over coalition shifts and alternative power alignments is expected to intensify.

To counter these so-called “whispered chronicles” of regime change, Thaksin and Pheu Thai have moved to display unity and strength among coalition members. The image of all key party leaders and MPs standing in line together was intended to signal to conservative powerbrokers that supporting the "red camp" could offer a viable path to political stability—potentially prolonging the current coalition’s tenure until near the end of its term in 2027.

In contrast, opting to replace the prime minister or switch alliances might risk unsettling the fragile political equilibrium and could trigger an early House dissolution—an outcome conservative elites would prefer to avoid.

This hesitation stems from the current coalition’s disadvantage against the surging popularity of the “orange wave,” which appears fully prepared for an early election. Should a snap poll be called, the political playing field may shift beyond their control.

At the same time, Thaksin is urging Pheu Thai and its coalition partners to hold the parliamentary front together. With the government clinging to a razor-thin majority, any disruption could derail legislative work and leave it vulnerable to attacks from the opposition and political rivals.

During his keynote speech at the coalition dinner, Thaksin reflected on his early exposure to politics. He recounted that 51 years ago, at the age of 25, he had no political experience but was given an opportunity to assist Prida Patanathabutr, then Minister attached to the Prime Minister’s Office under the administration of M.R. Kukrit Pramoj.

He remarked that the political atmosphere today is strikingly similar to that era—fragmented, with no dominant ruling party. The government’s stability depends on a coalition of multiple parties, which in turn affects legislative processes. Although the current coalition holds a slight majority, he emphasised that true strength lies in unity. 

“If we are united in solving the country’s problems—even amidst undesirable political manoeuvres—we can endure,” he said.

He acknowledged that Bhumjaithai’s recent withdrawal from the coalition was a move made from a position of political advantage. Nevertheless, he stressed that the remaining coalition parties remain firmly aligned and committed to moving forward together. 

Thaksin said he had told his daughter, Prime Minister Paetongtarn, that such solidarity must not be temporary: “If no one abandons one another now, then we must not abandon each other going forward.”

Drawing from past experience, he added, “What I’ve seen 11 years ago—today is far better. I’m confident we can sustain this government. I believe in the setback theory. Like a tennis stroke, sometimes you must step back to hit harder. Once we overcome today’s difficulties, the government will be stronger than ever—because we are unified, and no one is being left behind.”

This show of unity from Thaksin and Pheu Thai signals an urgent push to reinforce control, as Paetongtarn’s premiership now leans heavily on coalition support. Should she survive the Constitutional Court’s impending ruling regarding her controversial conversation with Hun Sen, she will need the full backing of coalition MPs—especially in the legislative arena.

Even in the worst-case scenario—if the court’s decision results in Paetongtarn’s removal—Pheu Thai is prepared to move forward with the coalition intact by nominating its third prime ministerial candidate, Chaikasem Nitisiri, to step in as her successor.

Still, questions remain: will this dinner mark the beginning of a truly unified front, or was it merely a fleeting gesture of political romance? Meanwhile, the “blue camp” has not conceded defeat. Instead, it is quietly positioning itself, signalling its readiness to be called upon by conservative powerbrokers as a viable alternative should the political tide turn.