Cambodia plans to escalate border dispute with Thailand to UNSC: source

The source stated that the border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia remains unresolved, despite the upcoming Joint Boundary Committee (JBC) meeting on Saturday, June 14. The key reasons for this uncertainty include:

• Cambodia has made it clear that it aims to bring the dispute over approximately four contested areas—the Emerald Triangle (Mom Bei), Ta Moan Thom, Ta Moan Tauch, and Ta Krabei temples—into the international arbitration process. Therefore, the JBC mechanism is unlikely to make any progress.
   
• The International Court of Justice (ICJ), which Cambodia refers to, may be a red herring, as Cambodia knows that Thailand does not recognise the jurisdiction of the ICJ, and the ICJ cannot force Thailand to comply.
   
• Cambodia's strategy is to provoke clashes or unrest along the border and then create a narrative that Cambodia is being bullied by Thailand. This would allow them to bring the issue before the UNSC, seeking resolutions that may involve the use of force.
   
• In such a case, Thailand would be subjected to UNSC actions, which consists of 15 members, with five permanent members.

• Cambodia has an ally in France, one of the five permanent members, as France is Cambodia’s former colonial power.
   
• It is anticipated that Cambodia may call for UNSC intervention or sanctions against Thailand.
   
• The five permanent members have veto power over any UNSC decision, especially sanctions. However, none of the permanent members are expected to support Thailand:
  • The United States is currently not focused on Thailand.
  • China is neutral but would likely side with Cambodia if forced to choose.
  • France is certainly on Cambodia’s side.
  • The United Kingdom and Russia would likely refrain from vetoing, as it would not serve their interests.
     
• Cambodia also has the Ream Naval Base, a crucial strategic military facility that global powers are vying for in the Indo-Pacific region. As a result, both the United States and China will attempt to secure Cambodia’s favour or, at the very least, refrain from acting negatively towards it.

"This is a dire situation for Thailand," the source said. "Therefore, Thailand’s best course of action is to adopt a resilient strategy, avoid responding with force, and gather as much photographic or other evidence as possible to prepare for a case in the UNSC."