Cambodia pretends to end conflict, prepares for unconventional warfare

The core of the agreement lies in keeping promises. Without honouring agreements, they become meaningless. The key question is whether Cambodia has gotten what it wanted. In the past, Cambodia has repeatedly failed to adhere to agreements, and this time will likely be no different.

The recent clashes were a major investment for Cambodia, marking the largest-scale war with Thailand, yet Cambodia suffered the heaviest losses. The decision to cease hostilities could just be a way to buy time to rebuild their strength.

It is essential to remember that Cambodia’s ultimate goal is to bring the matter to the International Court of Justice. The clashes were likely part of their plan to set the stage for this. Cambodia hopes that the losses it’s sustained will evoke sympathy from the international community.

The security forces are not convinced that Cambodia will genuinely cease hostilities. They expect Cambodia to wait for the right moment to strike again. The critical periods to watch are when forces are being rotated or during times of political vacuum.

Thailand will continue to face information warfare, fake news, and underhanded tactics. Cambodia will likely draw Thailand into the type of warfare it excels in: "unconventional warfare", particularly with organised mass mobilisation and provoking Thailand into using force, similar to the Ta Muen Thom temple incident.

One area that Thailand must pay close attention to is the deployment of forces for monitoring both land and sea confrontations, especially the 11 key locations where Thailand has strategic control.

While Cambodia does not need to maintain vigilance, it can easily shift its forces to apply pressure on strategically important areas at any time.

The troop movements and ongoing use of drones for intelligence gathering indicate that Cambodia has not stopped its operations, and caution is needed as they may adapt their tactics for future attacks.

Thailand must be vigilant in learning from past encounters and prepare for possible attacks using both the weaknesses and strengths identified in previous confrontations.

Military Uncertainty - 7 Factors Cambodia Could Shift Stance

According to a source close to the "Military Command Centre," the situation is still being carefully monitored, with several key points raised.

The military remains cautious and does not believe the situation will truly calm, as Cambodia continues to reinforce its presence in all areas during the ceasefire.

Drones are still flying in Thailand's sensitive areas, which is a significant warning sign. (This is confirmed to be mapping drones).

There is still no clear agreement on landmines, as Cambodia has refused to discuss the issue this time.

Cambodia has set conditions preventing Thailand from using F-16 fighter jets in attacks, suggesting that Cambodia is still considering combat operations.

Many areas previously controlled by Cambodian forces, such as Phu Makua and Preah Vihear, are now under Thai control, and it is believed that Cambodia is seeking to regain these territories.

Reliable sources have confirmed that secret meetings and communications regarding military operations are happening daily in Cambodia.

The body language of Cambodian Minister of Defence, Gen Tea Seiha, clearly shows rejection of three of the 13 points in the agreement.

GBC Does not Address Hot Issues - Merely Blowing the Whistle, Pushing the Issue Aside

The issue of border demarcation or military control of strategic points, where forces are currently facing each other, was not discussed.

The GBC meeting on August 7 simply acted as a acted like a referee blowing the whistle, deflecting the issue temporarily.

The core problem, border issues, was not even mentioned.

The closure of border checkpoints was not addressed, even though this issue could have been revived. 

This issue may be passed on to the RBC, although it will still require considerable time to resolve.