Border fighting may cost Thailand and Cambodia over 60bn baht in one month

A Thai academic has warned that prolonged border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia could cause economic damage exceeding 60 billion baht if the conflict lasts for at least one month.

Associate Professor Dr Aat Pisanwanich said Thailand would suffer an estimated loss of 45.225 billion baht, while Cambodia could lose 15.337 billion baht, should the border fighting—which erupted on July 24—continue for a month or more.

For Thailand, Aat estimated that:

• Export losses through border trade would total 20.567 billion baht
• Business activities in provinces bordering Cambodia would face losses worth 24.657 billion baht
• Approximately 7,980 workers would become unemployed

In total, Thailand would suffer an economic loss equivalent to 45.225 billion baht, or around 0.25% of its GDP, he noted.

For Cambodia, the situation could be more severe in terms of employment:

• An estimated 185,752 workers would become unemployed
• The resulting loss of income would amount to 15.337 billion baht, or 1.1% of Cambodia’s GDP

Aat broke down the Cambodian job losses as follows:

• 86,301 workers unemployed due to a shortage of Thai goods, resulting in lost income of 8.284 billion baht
• 94,520 workers unemployed due to a decline in tourism, with tourism revenue losses totalling 6.148 billion baht
• 4,931 workers unemployed due to reduced investment, with losses estimated at 905 million baht

He added that if the conflict continues for two to three months, the total economic losses in both countries could double or even triple.