Thai-Cambodian Tensions: Expert Warns of UN Security Council Pitfalls
Dr Panitan Wattanayagorn outlines three key considerations for Thailand as the UNSC prepares to discuss the escalating border dispute
- An expert warns Thailand that it may be at a disadvantage as Cambodia initiated the UN Security Council (UNSC) meeting and several council members have closer ties to Cambodia.
- The UNSC has the authority to deploy military forces and could refer the dispute to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), which the expert believes could be detrimental to Thailand's position.
- Potential negative outcomes for Thailand include the UNSC imposing pressure or a resolution that fast-tracks the involvement of the ICJ.
- The expert advises Thailand to conduct proactive diplomacy with friendly nations and present comprehensive information to counter Cambodia's narrative and potential bias within the council.
The simmering conflict between Thailand and Cambodia is set to escalate onto the international stage, with an urgent meeting of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) on the horizon.
As both nations brace for the high-stakes discussions, Associate Professor Dr Panitan Wattanayagorn, a leading expert in security and international relations, has cautioned Thailand on the potential pitfalls and outlined three crucial factors to consider.
Speaking on Nation TV's "Monitoring the Thailand-Cambodia Conflict" programme on Friday, Dr Panitan underscored that while the UNSC's urgent agenda presents an opportunity for Thailand, the kingdom must navigate the proceedings with extreme caution.
Navigating the UNSC Agenda
Firstly, Dr Panitan highlighted that Cambodia initiated the request for the emergency meeting and its inclusion as an urgent agenda item.
This is significant given the UNSC's existing backlog of pressing global issues, including the situations in the Congo, Haiti, Syria, and the Red Sea.
Integrating the Cambodian agenda amidst these existing priorities requires careful management by Thailand.
Secondly, the expert reminded that the UNSC holds unique authority within the UN to deploy military force for peacekeeping missions.
This power means the council's pronouncements could be either advantageous or detrimental to either disputing nation.
Furthermore, Dr Panitan suggested the UNSC might lean towards the International Court of Justice (ICJ), a mechanism already linked to the council.
Should the dispute be fast-tracked or referred to the ICJ, he warned, it could potentially favour Cambodia over Thailand.
Lastly, Dr Panitan pointed out that among the five permanent and ten rotating members of the UNSC, several nations maintain closer ties with Cambodia than with Thailand.
This geopolitical reality could influence decisions and necessitates a strategic approach from Bangkok.
Pre-Emptive Diplomacy is Key
The UN Secretary-General recently expressed concern over the Thai-Cambodian dispute, urging both nations to seek a resolution through dialogue and encouraging UNSC involvement.
In light of this, Dr Panitan stressed the need for exceptional prudence from Thailand.
He advised proactive engagement with friendly nations prior to the meeting, providing comprehensive information on Cambodia's alleged violations of Thai sovereignty, including landmine placements, and attacks on hospitals and civilian targets—actions that contravene several international agreements.
While such information benefits Thailand's case, he cautioned that some nations may already have taken Cambodia's side and might not be swayed by Thai evidence.
Dr Panitan also emphasised that the UNSC engagement is merely the beginning of a protracted battle.
He called for Thailand to establish a dedicated, permanent data team, mirroring Cambodia's efforts, to continuously supply information.
This is crucial given the rotating monthly presidencies of the UNSC, each responsible for organising and conducting the meetings.
Three Potential UNSC Scenarios
Dr Panitan outlined three possible outcomes following the UNSC meeting:
1. Vetoed Resolution: A Boon for Thailand
The most favourable scenario for Thailand would be a veto on any resolution, effectively closing the matter.
Thailand has successfully achieved this previously, with the UNSC referring the issue back to ASEAN, which then saw Indonesia, as the ASEAN Chair, facilitate bilateral talks between Thailand and Cambodia.
However, Dr Panitan cautioned that this outcome might be harder to secure this time, citing a stronger Thai permanent representative to the UN in the past and a closer relationship with the US.
2. Fact-Finding Mission: A Cautious Advantage
Another possibility is the UNSC calling for more fact-finding and dispatching a mission to the region to observe the situation and potentially de-escalate the fighting.
This scenario could benefit Thailand, provided it fields a robust team and possesses ample information, along with secure areas for the fact-finding mission to operate.
Thailand, he noted, has generally adhered more closely to international rules than Cambodia.
3. Pressuring Thailand: A Negative Outcome
The most adverse scenario for Thailand would see the UNSC imposing measures, such as pressure on Thailand, even if not an outright condemnation or a direct order for peacekeeping forces.
A resolution that expedites the involvement of the International Court of Justice would be particularly detrimental to Thailand's position.
