Hun Sen’s ‘two-pronged strategy’ aims to destabilise Thailand, says source

Hun Sen is said to be orchestrating the entire campaign—from strategic direction to tactical timing—with a focus on psychological warfare targeting key figures in the Thai government.

The first prong of the strategy involves drawing Thailand into an international conflict, an arena where Thailand is perceived to be less adept. 

Cambodia, with its colonial legacy under France, is leveraging its international legal acumen by initiating cases at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and signalling a possible escalation to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).

Simultaneously, Cambodia is actively working within ASEAN, undeterred by the fact that former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra currently advises the ASEAN chair. 

Hun Sen has reportedly urged Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, the current ASEAN chair, to raise the Thai-Cambodian border dispute for regional intervention—bypassing bilateral mechanisms.

Provocations will continue in an attempt to lure Thailand into reacting violently. If Thailand takes the bait, Cambodia could then escalate the matter to the UNSC and push for ICJ jurisdiction, the source explained.

If Thailand refuses to recognise the ICJ’s authority, Cambodia could use the UNSC to impose pressure or sanctions—giving Phnom Penh a clear advantage.

The second prong of the strategy is designed to foment internal unrest in Thailand. Hun Sen is allegedly exploiting the close ties between Cambodia and the current Thai government—led by the daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra—to undermine public trust and sow division.

The campaign began with the release of a leaked audio recording of a phone call, followed by private photos taken in a Cambodian residence, fuelling public suspicion about the depth of the relationship. 

The aim, the source said, is to destabilise the ruling Pheu Thai-led coalition by feeding a narrative that both the current and former Thai prime ministers may be colluding with Cambodia.

This has heightened concerns among Thais over potential undisclosed deals—especially concerning vast natural gas reserves in the Gulf of Thailand near Ko Kut Island.

The release of more private footage or audio clips reinforcing the perception of overly intimate ties is expected to continue, said the source. The goal is to provoke anti-government groups into launching a movement to topple the administration.

The ultimate objective, according to the source, is to trigger a House dissolution and fresh elections. If the Pheu Thai Party wins again, it could reignite political tensions, particularly among conservative forces and the military. This, in turn, may prompt a military coup, plunging Thai politics into another cycle of instability.

Should Prime Minister Paetongtarn be forced to resign, a political vacuum could ensue, further exacerbating domestic turmoil.

A high-level security source noted that the current approach of simply urging national unity while blaming Cambodia for all provocations is insufficient. The root of the crisis lies in the prime minister’s own actions, particularly the controversial conversation and unusually close ties, a source said.

“The most effective solution would be a leadership change. Replacing the prime minister and the government leader—if possible—would restore public confidence in the handling of the Cambodia issue, demonstrating there are no hidden agendas or conflicts of interest,” the source concluded.