US, China, and India goods set to flood Thailand amid trade war fallout

Pramook Chetphongsathorn, CEO of PJUS GROUP and honorary adviser to the Department of International Trade Promotion, told Thansettakij that Chinese goods are currently benefiting from a 30% reciprocal tariff exemption by the US, which will last until August 12.

The exemption was put in place as China agreed to apply a 10% import tariff on US goods. This follows a previous situation in which the US imposed a 145% tariff on Chinese imports, while China retaliated with 125%. Both countries are expected to continue negotiations to reach a new agreement.

Additionally, the US has recently concluded negotiations with India, announcing that import duties on Indian goods will be raised to 25% (down from the previous 27%). 

With tariffs set to rise for Chinese goods and US duties on Indian imports now firmly in place, exports from these two major global manufacturing countries to the US will likely decline, leading to an increased push to find alternative markets.

Thailand is expected to become a key target for the excess goods from both China and India, alongside a potential rise in US imports following trade agreement progress.

The US reciprocal tariff rates imposed on imports from global trading partners, combined with the differing competitiveness and cost management capabilities of each country, will impact exchange rates, leading to increased volatility and making business operations more challenging.

"The current impact on US consumers due to baseline tariffs introduced in April has slowed down consumption significantly," Pramook explained. "Many businesses in the US have seen average sales declines of 9-13% since Q2 of this year. This has resulted in job layoffs, mergers, and a rising number of bankruptcies."

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has announced plans to use revenue generated from these tariffs to distribute $600 per person, or $2,400 per family, to American citizens in an effort to ease the cost of living. 

This move will come into effect after new tariff rates (including baseline and reciprocal taxes) are applied, starting from August 7.

It is expected that the US will generate an additional $50 billion per month from these taxes, up from the previous $27 billion generated from the 10% baseline tariffs.

"Goods shipped before August 7 and arriving in the US by October 5, 2025, will still be subject to the 10% tariff, while goods shipped after August 7 will be taxed at the new 19% rate,” Pramook said.

Despite the increased tariffs, PJUS GROUP, which markets Thai food products in the US under its own brand and for clients, has not been significantly affected by the new import duties. 

The company has been able to raise prices in line with the tariff increases. July sales for PJUS GROUP marked the highest ever since its inception.