Coffee consumption surges as Thai market defies economic slump

In 2024, the global coffee market was valued at US$269.27 billion and is projected to grow to US$369.46 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.3%. 

Coffee has become a daily staple for many Thais, who now consume an average of over 340 cups per person annually. This growing consumption has pushed the domestic market value to 65 billion baht—an increase of 8.33% from the previous year.

DBD data shows that Thailand cultivates both Arabica and Robusta varieties across more than 220,000 rai of farmland, yielding around 40,000–50,000 tonnes annually. 

However, only 5,000 tonnes qualify as specialty coffee, falling short of domestic demand. As a result, coffee bean imports surged to 8.38 billion baht between January and May 2025, while exports stood at 2.41 billion baht.

Consumer preferences have shifted clearly—from instant coffee to fresh and specialty brews. Each generation shows distinct preferences: Gen X favours convenience, while Gen Y and Z prioritise lifestyle experiences and sustainability.

Auramon Supthaweethum, director-general of the DBD, reported that 415 new coffee-related businesses were registered between January and June 2025, marking an 8.92% year-on-year increase. All were categorised as small enterprises, with over 33% based in Bangkok, reflecting the continued strength of the coffee market.

However, financial data over the past three years show flat overall industry revenue, while net profits—particularly among producers—have declined due to rising costs and intense competition. 

In 2024, total industry revenue stood at 206.75 billion baht (37.21 billion from producers and 169.53 billion from distributors), representing a 1.7% increase from 2023.

Coffee shops in Thailand fall into two key models:

• Franchise/chains – Large-scale networks suitable for newcomers to the business.
   
• Independent – Owner-operated ventures that make up 94.4% of the market. These often include standalone shops, coffee trucks and kiosks, with 1–3 branches per brand.
   

Franchise and chain coffee shops enjoy higher profitability, with an average net profit margin of 17.5% and annual revenue growth of 10%. In contrast, independent coffee shops—despite offering unique branding and high-quality products—earn an average margin of just 4.6%, underscoring the competitive pressure within this segment.

While the specialty and experience-driven segments still present strong growth potential, entrepreneurs face challenges from cost volatility and market saturation. 

Success will require clear strategies, robust cost management, and deep understanding of evolving consumer demands—particularly among younger, lifestyle-conscious, and sustainability-driven demographics.

Technology will also play a key role in expanding customer reach. Coffee shops now require omnichannel ordering—from in-store to delivery and pre-orders via apps—as well as digital payment options. 

Currently, 22% of coffee shop sales come from delivery services, while over 50% of payments are made via e-payment systems, allowing cafés to serve broader customer bases beyond their immediate locations.