Thailand braces for a storm of political rulings through August and September

Throughout August and into early September, several high-stakes political cases are scheduled to come under judicial and constitutional scrutiny, as independent constitutional bodies and the judiciary prepare to issue rulings that could dramatically reshape the political landscape. 

Observers are watching with bated breath to see which politicians or parties will survive this legal gauntlet.

The first case has already been decided. On August 1, the Constitutional Court ruled that Pichet Chuamuangphan, a Pheu Thai MP from Chiang Rai, must step down from his post as Deputy Speaker of the House. He was also stripped of his political rights for 10 years for violating Article 144 of the Constitution by reallocating the 2026 budget to benefit his political stronghold.

The next major case, scheduled for August 22, could prove even more politically explosive. The Supreme Court will deliver its verdict in a lèse-majesté (Article 112) case against former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, stemming from remarks made during an interview with foreign media that were deemed critical of the monarchy.

Meanwhile, in the controversial Khao Kradong land scandal, Interior Minister Phumtham Wechayachai and Deputy Interior Minister Dechism Khaothong have already signed an order revoking land titles in the area. 

The focus now shifts to how disciplinary action will be pursued against the former Land Department chief, who requested a transfer, and who will be appointed as his successor. 

This case has escalated into a political showdown between Pheu Thai and the Bhumjaithai Party, with both sides trading blows.

Attention also turns to the aftermath of the Constitutional Court’s suspension order against Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who must submit a written defence concerning a leaked audio clip of a private conversation with Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen. Court has granted two extensions already. Observers are awaiting a ruling date, as the clip is widely viewed as having undermined Thailand’s national dignity and allegedly contributed to the Thai-Cambodian military clashes in which both soldiers and civilians were killed or injured. 

The verdict could have significant ramifications for Pheu Thai, potentially prompting a change in the premiership, the dissolution of Parliament, or a fresh constitutional crisis, depending on the outcome. Speculation points to a possible ruling by late August or early September.

On 9 September, another critical case will come before the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions, which is expected to rule on the controversial use of the VIP 14th floor at Police General Hospital by Thaksin Shinawatra during his prison sentence. The court has summoned both the chief of Bangkok Remand Prison and Thaksin to appear for the enforcement ruling.

Perhaps the most politically volatile case, likened by some to a “nuclear bomb in Parliament,” is the Constitutional Court petition accusing Paetongtarn’s Cabinet, MPs, and senators of violating Article 144 by transferring funds for the proposed digital wallet scheme, which critics argue was designed to boost the economy through unconstitutional means. 

The case is now under review by the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC), which is constitutionally mandated to forward the matter urgently to the Constitutional Court—effectively placing it on the judiciary’s fast track.

Separately, the alleged collusion in the Senate election process is under investigation by the Election Commission. The case implicates members of a major party and several senators, and its outcome could have significant knock-on effects.

Taken together, these legal proceedings carry immense political weight, especially as the country grapples with external challenges—not least the fragile ceasefire with Cambodia. Although gunfire has ceased for now, tensions remain high, and the outcome of these domestic legal battles could further complicate Thailand’s political stability.