Delaying the clock: Government buys time as PM seeks to revive ratings

Thailand’s political landscape has entered a volatile phase following the release of a controversial audio clip allegedly featuring Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra in conversation with Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen, discussing tensions along the Thai-Cambodian border.

The clip has triggered renewed scrutiny and intensified legal pressures on Paetongtarn. Two parallel proceedings now threaten to determine her political fate, marking what analysts describe as a potential “legal war” unfolding on dual fronts.

The first front concerns a petition under review by the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC), accusing Paetongtarn of a serious ethical violation. On July 14, the commission unanimously appointed a formal inquiry panel led by NACC President Suchart Trakulkasemsuk and Commissioner Praphas Kong-ied.

The second front lies with the Constitutional Court, which suspended Paetongtarn from her duties on July 1 and granted her 15 days to respond to the allegations. That deadline expires on July 16. Court president Nakharin Mektrairat recently confirmed that the prime minister may request an extension, subject to the court’s deliberation. At minimum, one extension is permitted.

With both cases progressing in tandem, political observers suggest that the government now stands at a “three-way junction”:

• Await the court’s decision – A ruling could go either way, with both positive and negative outcomes deemed equally possible.
• Resignation strategy – Paetongtarn may pre-emptively resign to reset her status, following the precedent of former minister Pichit Chuenban, whose case was dropped after stepping down.
• Dissolve Parliament – A bold final move to reclaim political initiative and prevent a potential power shift.

Former senator Somchai Sawaengkarn has weighed in on the growing legal crisis, offering a sharp analysis of potential escape routes. He noted that if Prime Minister Paetongtarn were to resign before the Constitutional Court issues its ruling, the case would be dismissed as there would no longer be a defendant. However, if she remains in office and the court rules against her, the outcome could mirror that of Srettha Thavisin—removal from office along with a disqualification under ethical standards, potentially ending her political career.

Importantly, Somchai pointed out that the resignation would not halt the second legal proceeding at the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC). If the NACC finds her guilty of a serious ethical breach, the case would move forward to the Supreme Court’s Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions.

Observers believe Paetongtarn’s advisers are pursuing a strategy of “maximum delay” to stretch the timeline and possibly manage the political fallout. Since the Constitutional Court suspended her duties on July 1 and granted her 15 days to respond (by July 16), she is eligible to request a 15-day extension, pushing the deadline to July 31.

After receiving her clarification, the court must forward her defence to the Senate for rebuttal, due by August 16. The rebuttal would then be sent back to Paetongtarn for an optional second response. Only then would the court begin a 15-day deliberation period, likely concluding around August 31.

Altogether, the legal process is expected to span roughly 60 days, placing a final ruling in September or by early October at the latest. This timeline coincides with the annual civil service reshuffle period, potentially amplifying the impact of any Constitutional Court verdict handed down at that time.

As Prime Minister Paetongtarn faces mounting legal and political uncertainty, her father and Pheu Thai patriarch Thaksin Shinawatra has re-entered the spotlight—signalling a determination not to allow a transfer of power without resistance.

His recent public appearances suggest a deliberate strategy to assert political continuity and to position himself as a de facto parallel prime minister.

Thaksin's first re-emergence came on July 9, just days after the Constitutional Court ordered Paetongtarn to suspend her duties. He delivered a keynote address titled “Crafting the Future: From OTOP to ThaiWORKS and Beyond” at the SPLASH – Soft Power Forum 2025, outlining a forward-looking economic vision.

Later that same day, he joined the “55 Years of The Nation: Breaking Thailand’s Deadlock” forum. There, he dismissed the notion that the country had reached a political dead end, despite the Pheu Thai-led government's shaky majority following the departure of Bhumjaithai from the coalition. He stressed the importance of solving the crisis through “political mathematics”.

Thaksin also offered options should the Constitutional Court rule against Paetongtarn:

If cleared, she would resume her role and continue implementing policy.

If disqualified, two options remain—either nominating Chaikasem Nitisiri, Pheu Thai’s third prime ministerial candidate, or dissolving Parliament for a fresh election.

On July 11, Thaksin joined the “Team Thailand” policy advisory meeting at the Prime Minister’s official residence, Phitsanulok Mansion, to discuss the looming threat of import tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump, including a 36% levy on Thai exports.

His schedule continues with a keynote address on July 17 at Queen Sirikit National Convention Centre under the themes “Unlocking Thailand’s Future: Confronting Global Crises” and “Reviving the Thai Economy for the Future”, followed by a special interview until 9.30pm.

Then on July 19, he is set to preside over a major Buddhist merit-making ceremony at Wat Ban Rai in Nakhon Ratchasima, where he will oversee the casting of the base of the statue of revered monk Luang Phor Koon.

Thaksin’s high-profile movements serve as more than ceremonial appearances—they are widely interpreted as part of a broader political strategy to confront the “three-way junction” the government faces. Beyond stabilising internal tensions, they are intended to reject notions of a looming power vacuum and reaffirm that the party’s patriarch is not ready to surrender control.

Especially as speculation grows over whether Paetongtarn may resign before the court's verdict, Thaksin’s moves suggest that the decision is far from final, and the real game may only just be beginning.