Pheu Thai bets on recovery to restore trust in two years

Entangled in a web of political strife, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s government faces mounting pressure as both rival blocs and adversaries unleash their full political arsenal. A wave of high-stakes legal challenges is being pushed through the judiciary and independent oversight bodies, placing the administration in an increasingly precarious position.

The immediate flashpoint is the leaked audio clip of Paetongtarn’s conversation with Hun Sen, President of Cambodia’s Senate. The Constitutional Court has accepted a petition against her and ordered her suspension from the premiership while it deliberates the case—a process that could take over 60 days. The ruling has pushed the Shinawatra family and the Pheu Thai Party into the political “red zone”, where every deal is a gamble.

Hot on the heels of Paetongtarn’s suspension came behind-the-scenes manoeuvring by Bhumjaithai Party leader Anutin Charnvirakul. He has reportedly entered talks with the People’s Party MPs in a bid to secure votes to become a temporary prime minister.

However, the potential alliance between Anutin’s “blue camp” and elements of the progressive “orange bloc” has stirred unease among traditionalist conservatives. Even the People’s Party risks a backlash from its core supporters, who view such a deal with suspicion. As a result, the interim premiership plan appears to be unravelling. 

Even if the People’s Party throws its support behind Anutin and Bhumjaithai, the numbers still fall short without backing from the conservative bloc, which has refused to align with their former blue allies.

Despite Paetongtarn’s suspension, Pheu Thai still holds the political upper hand within the ruling coalition. As the largest party in government, it remains confident that any eventual succession would keep the premiership within its ranks.

Yet, amid the political chaos and strategic infighting, the public's attention is sharply focused on one demand: economic relief. Regardless of which camp holds power, there is a growing expectation that the government—whoever leads it—must act urgently to revive the economy and ease the burdens of a struggling population.

A recent survey conducted by Krungthep Turakij among 100 CEOs from leading businesses across various sectors has revealed growing concern over Thailand’s political instability and its impact on private sector confidence and investment. The survey carried out via an online platform between June 17 - 29, 2025, explored executive perspectives under the theme: "Political uncertainty and its impact on business and investment confidence."

Key expectations: debt relief, tourism, and economic clarity

When asked what they expected from Thailand’s future government, most CEOs agreed that the administration must take serious steps to address household debt and revive the tourism and services sector, which they see as crucial to driving economic recovery.

They also stressed the need for the government to restore confidence through clear, consistent, and long-term economic policies, which would provide a stable direction for Thailand's economic future.

Immediate policy priorities

In terms of urgent government actions, the majority of CEOs identified household debt resolution and improvements in living standards as top priorities. These were followed by calls to boost the tourism and service industries, promote next-generation industries, and encourage more foreign direct investment (FDI).

CEO recommendations to rebuild trust amid political uncertainty

When asked what the government should do to rebuild confidence in the face of today’s political challenges, CEOs overwhelmingly emphasised the importance of policy clarity and continuity in long-term economic planning.

Other top recommendations included:

• Improving bureaucratic efficiency and legal enforcement
• Enhancing private sector participation in policymaking
• Reducing political conflict and fostering political stability
• Lack of faith in current government strategy

Despite these suggestions, 57.4% of CEOs said the current government lacks a clear and effective strategy for tackling economic challenges. A significant portion also indicated that they had seen little evidence of any serious attempt by the government to address the country’s economic issues.

Echoing recent CEO surveys, multiple public opinion polls reveal that Thai citizens place far greater importance on solving economic problems than political ones.

A Suan Dusit Poll conducted by Suan Dusit University between March 11–14, 2025, using both online and field surveys with a sample of 1,264 people nationwide, asked respondents about the most urgent issues they wanted the government to address.

The top five urgent problems identified were:

• Cost of living/product prices – 72.55%
• Income / personal debt – 69.09%
• Politics – 65.28%
• Justice system – 64.58%
• Agricultural issues – 62.30%

These findings were consistent with an earlier NIDA Poll, which conducted a survey from April 5–9, 2025 on the topic: “When should the Cabinet reshuffle take place?” The poll sampled 1,310 respondents.

A majority of respondents suggested that the reshuffle should prioritise ministries related to economic affairs. The top ten ministries identified were:

• Ministry of Commerce – 57.02%
• Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives – 48.55%
• Ministry of Finance – 46.49%
• Office of the Prime Minister – 44.43%
• Ministry of Labour – 43.89%
• Ministry of Interior – 43.82%
• Ministry of Defence – 42.52%
• Ministry of Transport – 41.53%
• Ministry of Education – 41.22%
• Ministry of Justice – 40.07%

New ministers under pressure to deliver

In the latest reshuffle, the Ministry of Commerce saw Pichai Naripthaphan replaced by Jatuporn Buruspat, who now faces pressure to prove his capability in a critical role.

At the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives, a portfolio under the Kla Thum Party’s quota, Narumon Pinyosinwat was moved to head the Ministry of Education, while Attakorn Sirilatthayakorn has stepped in to lead Agriculture—another figure whose performance will be closely watched.

Call for emergency measures as Thai exporters risk losing out in US tariff negotiations

Amid growing uncertainty, industrial leaders have urged the Thai government to stabilise domestic politics and prepare emergency measures in case trade talks with the United States collapse.

Speaking at the seminar "Confidence in Thailand: New Challenges in a Changing Era", hosted by the National Press Council of Thailand, Kriangkrai Thiennukul, Chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), said the private sector is closely watching for signs of political stability and clarity from the government to ensure Thailand does not lose ground to regional competitors.

Kriangkrai stressed that Thailand must be governed by a strong, unified political system capable of restoring investor confidence, especially as the country faces external challenges beyond its control—such as retaliatory tariffs being considered by US President Donald Trump. In contrast, internal political stability is something the country can control and therefore must be urgently addressed to strengthen national preparedness.

“While the US has cut tariffs for Vietnamese goods by 20%, Thai exports still face a 36% rate. This puts us at a disadvantage in the American market, especially as Thailand and Vietnam have similar export structures,” Kriangkrai said. “If the government cannot secure a favourable deal, it must have contingency plans in place—such as helping exporters access new markets, offering financial support, and reassessing market access conditions. The private sector is awaiting clarity on this.”

Surge in cheap imports worsens SME woes

He also warned of a growing flood of low-cost foreign products into Thailand, which is severely impacting small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). “We are still grappling with long-standing problems, but now face new ones with even greater consequences,” he added.

Pheu Thai confident in government’s two-year recovery window

Meanwhile, Jirawat Arunyakanon, Deputy Spokesman of the ruling Pheu Thai Party, expressed confidence that the government still has two years to prove itself. “There is still time to allocate budget resources to support the public and invest in large-scale development projects. We believe this government can still rebuild confidence within the remaining term,” he said.

As for the proposal of appointing a “temporary prime minister,” he noted that any such appointment must comply with Section 159 of the Constitution, which requires the prime minister to be selected from a party’s approved candidate list. Although a “temporary PM” may appear on a party’s list, imposing conditions such as dissolving parliament appears politically opportunistic and premature.

Political power games at odds with public priorities

These developments underscore a broader trend: while political factions continue to strategise and compete for state power, the public remains focused on unresolved economic problems. Despite worsening household financial conditions, there remains no comprehensive roadmap to address Thailand’s most pressing socioeconomic issues.