Peace from Kuala Lumpur!
The General Border Committee (GBC) meeting to address the Thailand-Cambodia conflict, held in Kuala Lumpur on August 7, has now concluded. The 13 points of agreement reached between the two parties have already made headlines in various media outlets, so I will refrain from reiterating them here.
However, there are some additional observations that may be worth considering:
1. The ceasefire agreement at the level of official government agreements between the two countries is a positive political step, as it will help ease the tensions in the conflict. In essence, it represents the "de-escalation of war."
2. Given the nature of the international conflict, we cannot expect the GBC to do more than what has already been achieved. The committee's role is to set the direction and measures for addressing the issue at hand.
3. The GBC is a political-level committee, so the agreement reached at this level serves as a policy direction, with a clear framework for the ceasefire.
4. To bring the GBC meeting to a close, the detailed issues were delegated to the lower-level committee meetings, specifically the military-level discussions.
5. To ensure that the ceasefire is practically implemented, the "Regional Border Committee" (RBC) must take the policies agreed upon in the GBC meeting and translate them into actionable steps.
6. For the RBC to function effectively, military leaders from both sides must agree on the framework set by the GBC. This will become clearer when the RBC meeting is held in two weeks, determining how far the process can go.
7. While the ceasefire must be monitored, in this case, only a "Temporary Observer Team" (IOT) from Malaysia has been tasked with observing the situation. This will require close follow-up from ASEAN to monitor progress.
8. The GBC agreement does not address key future issues such as the reduction of military forces from both sides, measures to reduce military confrontations, and the management of Cambodia's landmine fields, which may pose challenges.
9. The immediate issue at hand is ensuring the ceasefire is properly implemented according to the framework agreed upon in Malaysia. This remains a critical point to monitor.
10. A significant future challenge will be dealing with the military presence in areas both sides claim rights to. This issue will likely need to be debated in detail regarding border lines, a task for the "Joint Boundary Commission" (JBC).
11. The GBC meeting has not yet addressed key concerns raised by Thailand, particularly regarding the clearing of landmines, the recovery of fallen soldiers, cybercrime issues, and control of certain areas.
12. The involvement of major external powers remains an important issue to watch closely.
Conclusion
The observations above highlight potential future challenges, as the political-level GBC meeting has clarified the ceasefire but needs military-level action to ensure practical implementation.
Therefore, the upcoming RBC meeting in two weeks will be crucial in determining how tangible the ceasefire becomes and whether it can be effectively enforced.
Professor Emeritus Dr Surachart Bamrungsuk
