Prime Minister Paetongtarn falls victim to the tactics of Hun Sen

Before joining the Khmer Rouge revolutionary forces, he fought against Gen Lon Nol, who was backed by the United States. This collaboration aimed at freeing Cambodia from foreign influence, eventually allowing the Khmer Rouge to take control of the country from 1975 to 1979. However, after escaping the Khmer Rouge's purge, Hun Sen fled to Vietnam.

In 1979, when the Vietnamese army toppled the Khmer Rouge regime and took control of Cambodia, Hun Sen was appointed as the Foreign Minister. By 1982, he became Deputy Prime Minister, and by 1985, at just 33 years old, he ascended to the role of Prime Minister.

Hun Sen is a seasoned leader with extensive battle experience. He is highly intelligent, strategic, and adept at reading the moves of his opponents. His ability to align with the Vietnamese forces helped him consolidate power and establish a long-lasting leadership over Cambodia.

Throughout his political career, Hun Sen faced numerous challenges, battling feudal elites and military forces that sought to overthrow him. As the leader of the Cambodian People's Party (CPP), he governed Cambodia as Prime Minister for an astonishing 38 years.

Even though Hun Sen has now transferred power to his eldest son, Hun Manet, who has become the new Prime Minister, he still plays a significant role in Cambodian politics and continues to be regarded as a spiritual leader of the Cambodian people.

Meanwhile, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the youngest daughter of Thaksin Shinawatra, was born with advantages in terms of education, status, and social connections. She is an alumna of St. Joseph Convent School and Mater Dei College, earning her bachelor’s degree in Political Science from Chulalongkorn University and then pursuing a master's degree in hotel management at the University of Surrey in the UK.

In the business world, Paetongtarn served as a board member for over 18 companies in the Shinawatra family business group before stepping down to enter politics. She later became Thailand's 31st Prime Minister.

It is clear that in the political arena, where national interests and sovereignty are at stake, Hun Sen and Paetongtarn are on entirely different levels. The seasoned political strategies of Hun Sen contrast sharply with the relative inexperience of Paetongtarn, which became evident through the audio clip discussing the Thai-Cambodian border issue.

In particular, a segment of the conversation, in which Paetongtarn referred to Lt Gen Boonsin Padklang, Commander of the 2nd Army Region, as the adversary, sparked widespread criticism and calls for accountability.

At this juncture, Hun Sen has fully committed to stirring up political turbulence in Thailand by attempting to discredit Paetongtarn. Recognising that deploying troops to the border to intimidate Thailand might not succeed, and that any potential conflict would severely damage Cambodia, he instead took to social media.

Earlier, Hun Sen posted a mocking message towards Paetongtarn, saying, "Only the Cambodian government has the authority to make decisions, including the power to command the army, unlike Thailand, where the Prime Minister has no power."

Panithan Wattanayakorn, an independent academic and expert on foreign affairs and security, views this phenomenon as a sign of Hun Sen’s deep frustration. He speculates that Hun Sen must be extremely disappointed by several unexpected developments, to the point of what could be described as a “breakdown.”

In fact, Hun Sen still aims to push through with his territorial agenda, pressuring Thailand to take the matter to the International Court of Justice after Cambodia already filed a case over disputed areas, including the border areas and three temples. Hun Sen’s goal is to create a new historical chapter by reclaiming territory.

Panithan believes that in the early stages, Hun Sen assessed Thailand’s weakness, considering it inexperienced and easily intimidated. He felt superior to Thailand. At the mid-point, it’s unclear what went wrong, but the issue of mutual benefits might have been disrupted, leading to Hun Sen’s frustration. It could have been the loss of face, with Thailand imposing border crossing restrictions and prohibiting Thai citizens from visiting casinos, which aggravated Hun Sen. However, Panithan suggests that there is likely something more that upset him.

Panithan also notes that the relationship between Thaksin Shinawatra and Hun Sen is one of both love and hate. He likely realised that Thaksin no longer holds the same influence or popularity in Thailand as before, while Hun Sen himself enjoys strong, uncontested power and can command anything at will.

This aligns with the view of Lt Gen Paradorn Patthanathabut, former Secretary-General of the National Security Council, who believes that Hun Sen is unreliable. What Hun Sen wants from Thailand is the territory that he has brought before the International Court of Justice. His actions, carried out with frustration, stem from Thailand's measures, such as restricting the hours of border crossings, prohibiting Thai citizens from visiting casinos, and even his irritation at criticism from figures like Sonthi Limthongkul and Jatuporn Promphan, which reflect Hun Sen's personality and character.
 
As for the leaked audio conversation with Paetongtarn, Hun Sen actually suffered from this too, as it would undermine his trust among other world leaders. However, he doesn’t seem to care—this is Hun Sen’s true nature, prioritising his own interests. Paetongtarn, unfortunately, is caught in this situation.

"I don’t think this is a trap. If Hun Sen released this clip, it shows that he and Thaksin are likely no longer on friendly terms, as the clip undermines Paetongtarn. We must reflect on what Thaksin may have done previously to upset Hun Sen. This could be a factor that prevents Paetongtarn from continuing," said Lt Gen Paradorn.

From here on, the situation at the Thai-Cambodian border will need to be closely monitored. Similarly, Prime Minister Paetongtarn is rapidly losing legitimacy in her position, especially after Hun Sen's dramatic move.