Thaksin, Pichai meet Baan Phitsanulok team to refine US tariff proposal

Thailand and several other countries have until August 1, 2025, to finalise trade proposals under the United States' new “Reciprocal Tariff” policy, after Washington confirmed a 36% retaliatory tariff rate on Thai exports.

The Thai government is pursuing a two-pronged approach. 

First, it is finalising a comprehensive proposal addressing tariff reductions, non-tariff barriers (NTB) easing, and the relaxation of import conditions. The US has set a July 31 deadline for submission of this additional proposal.

Second, the government is preparing mitigation measures in response to the so-called "Trump Tariff" and the expected market opening to US products. This includes budget allocations, relief funding, and soft loan schemes aimed at supporting affected farmers, SMEs, and exporters within the US-bound supply chain.

Thailand submitted its second-round proposal to Washington on July 6, 2025. The revised proposal accelerates the timeline for achieving trade balance, targeting a 70% reduction in Thailand’s trade surplus with the US by 2030. By 2031–2032, the two nations are expected to reach full trade balance.

A Government House source revealed that former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has called a meeting with the Prime Minister’s policy advisory team (known as the Baan Phitsanulok team) on July 10 to finalise Thailand’s negotiating position.

Thaksin’s meeting comes ahead of a high-level “Team Thailand” session on July 11, led by Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira. The session will bring together key economic ministers and the advisory team to consolidate Thailand’s position before the deadline. Thaksin reportedly stressed the need for a finalised strategy by the end of this week.

Thailand scrambles to cushion the impact of Trump tariffs

Pichai said that a high-level meeting on July 11, 2025, will consolidate input from affected businesses to shape appropriate support measures. The goal is to finalise Thailand’s negotiating stance and secure a deal with the United States before the July 31 deadline.

He stressed the need to prepare for multiple outcomes—ranging from favourable to moderate—while assessing the broader economic implications, particularly for Thai exports.

Countries that have already reached trade deals with Washington have faced multiple tariff layers, including import taxes on goods with insufficient domestic content (as measured by RVC – regional value content), and product-specific tariffs. This means individual Thai exporters could face differing tariff rates and uneven impacts depending on their product type and value chain composition.

Pressure mounts to lower NTBs, open Thai market to US farm goods

Supavud Saicheua, policy adviser to the Prime Minister and chair of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC), said that Pichai has called for a strategic meeting at Baan Phitsanulok on July 11 to review the US negotiations and explore next steps following US President Donald Trump’s formal notification of a 36% tariff rate on Thai goods. The deadline for a final proposal remains August 1, 2025.

He noted that recalibrating Thailand-US economic ties is critical, as the US accounts for 18% of Thailand’s total exports. With mounting pressure from Washington, Thailand can no longer rely on previous trade arrangements. “The US wants to recoup as much of its past trade deficit as possible, and if Thailand wants to export, it may have to manufacture in the US instead,” he said.

“Frankly, the 36% tariff is seen by the US as lenient given the past trade gap,” Supavud added. “Thailand will have to continue trading with the US, but the trade value is expected to shrink. At the same time, we will face growing pressure to import more American goods. We must start thinking seriously about who we’ll be trading with over the next 6 to 12 months.”

Vietnam deal becomes template as US pushes Thailand on tariff terms

Thailand's negotiation team has concluded that the trade deal struck between the US and Vietnam is now serving as a benchmark—if not a pressure point—for other countries, including Thailand, in ongoing tariff talks. The US is using Vietnam’s agreement as a reference in demanding wide-ranging commitments, from across-the-board tariff reductions to sweeping removal of non-tariff barriers (NTBs).

Among key US demands are the elimination of agricultural import quotas, streamlined import licensing timelines, and the lifting of sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) restrictions—mirroring Vietnam’s concessions. Washington is also pressing for the liberalisation of Thailand’s financial and telecommunications sectors, though not for immediate implementation, but rather as part of future negotiations.

US sets eyes on trans-shipment loopholes

Another sensitive issue is trans-shipment—the rerouting of goods from countries targeted by US trade restrictions through Thai ports. Vietnam was previously hit with a 40% tariff on such goods under a new trade enforcement model, and Thailand may soon face similar scrutiny. Defining what constitutes trans-shipment is expected to become a major sticking point, with potentially significant implications for Thai exporters.

Private sector consulted as relief plans take shape

According to a Government House source, Thailand’s latest proposal, submitted to Washington on 6 July 2025, is now under formal review by the US tariff task force, thanks to coordination by Thailand’s trade office in Washington. The Thai government is hoping its concessions will prompt a reduction in the proposed 36% tariff rate.

Meanwhile, domestic preparations to cushion the impact of the so-called “Trump Tariff” are underway. A relief package is being coordinated across ministries, with the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) and the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) tasked with presenting support options to Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira. These will focus on safeguarding employment and supporting exporters, SMEs, and farmers.

On July 9, the Finance Ministry convened a meeting with the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB). A broader consultation with the private sector is scheduled for next week, led by the NESDC, to fine-tune the design of targeted support measures.

Three key relief channels identified:

Budget allocations
– For FY2025: THB47 billion in the central stimulus fund already earmarked for Trump tariff response, with an additional THB11.1 billion reserved for export relief.
– For FY2026: THB25 billion set aside in the central budget, with plans to reallocate a further THB40 billion from other budget items.

Relief fund
– A dedicated fund will be used to support sectors most impacted by the new tariff regime.

Soft loan programme
– The Government Savings Bank (GSB) has prepared a THB100 billion soft loan facility to assist three groups: exporters to the US, export-related supply chains, and manufacturers hit by cheap Chinese imports.

Commerce Ministry considers relief fund for Trump tariff fallout

Commerce Minister Jatuporn Buruspat said that the July 11, 2025, meeting at Baan Phitsanulok will partly focus on designing relief measures for sectors affected by the US-imposed “Trump Tariff”. A proposal for a dedicated compensation fund worth ฿10 billion is under discussion, though the final amount will depend on the scale of economic damage identified.

Two implementation options are being considered:

Establishing a new relief fund specifically for tariff-related impacts

Channelling assistance through the existing Agricultural Restructuring Fund (FTA Fund), which aims to enhance national competitiveness in the sector

“We need comprehensive data—who is affected, which products, and the extent of the damage,” said Jatuporn. “Only then can we determine the appropriate funding level. The Commerce Ministry will coordinate closely with all relevant ministries to ensure an effective and targeted response.”

There are reports that former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra also took part in the meeting at Baan Phitsanulok on Friday, underscoring his active role in shaping Thailand’s negotiating strategy and economic response to the impending US tariff measures.

His presence signals the political weight being placed on securing a resolution before the 1 August deadline.